Poll Shows Schiff​ And Garvey Surge Heading Into Final Senate Debate

CALIFORNIA — Heading into Tuesday evening's final debate before the March 5 primary, a new poll shows a major shakeup in California's U.S. Senate race.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has jumped far to the lead with 28 percent support of registered voters followed by Republican candidate and former Los Angeles Dodgers star Steve Garvey at 22 percent, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll. The two pulled ahead of the pack following a concerted and expensive effort by Schiff to bolster the electoral chances of Garvey, who is widely seen as his easier opponent in the Nov. 5 general election.

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) has fallen from a close battle for second to a distant third place with 16 percent of the vote followed by Rep. Barbara Lee (Oakland) with 9 percent of the vote in the Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll of 1,000 registered voters. The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.

California has an open primary, which means only the top two vote-getters in the primary election, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election.

According to a California Elections and Policy Poll released earlier in February, Porter and Garvey had been deadlocked in the race for second place. However, that was before the Schiff campaign expended considerable capital to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters through a series of expensive Fox News ads, touting him as too conservative for California.

Garvey, with just over $300,000 in his war chest, can't afford such ads, according to CalMatters. And it's been decades since a Republican won statewide office in California.

Porter blasted the tactic as a “brazenly cynical” bid for Schiff to handpick his opponent in the general election, counting on deep blue California to reject any statewide Republican candidate in the general election.

Should Schiff and Garvey make it into the general election, it will be the first time in more than 30 years that the Golden State was represented by two men in the U.S. Senate.

That may not be on the forefront of voters' minds, according to Emerson College Polling.

The top issues for voters were identified as:

• economy (27 percent of voters),
• immigration (14 percent of voters),
• housing affordability (14 percent of voters),
• crime (11 percent of voters),
• healthcare (9 percent of voters),
• homelessness (8 percent of voters),
• education (7 percent of voters),
• threats to democracy (5 percent of voters), and
• abortion (3 percent of voters).

Voters were also asked to rank which candidate they trust to do the best job on the issues:

• Crime: 32% Schiff, 25% Garvey, 19% Porter, and 12% Lee.
• Homelessness: 29% Schiff, 26% Garvey, 20% Porter, and 13% Lee.
• War in Israel and Gaza: 33% Schiff, 25% Garvey, 14% Porter, and 12% Lee.
• Immigration: 32% Schiff, 27% Garvey, 17% Porter, and 11% Lee.
• Abortion: 26% Porter, 25% Schiff, 23% Garvey, and 11% Lee.

Tuesday's debate will be aired at 6 p.m. on NBC4 and Telemundo 52 in Southern California and NBC Bay Area and its streaming channels and digital platforms in the San Francisco Bay Area.