CA GOP Incumbents Lead Races With Control Of The House On The Line

LOS ANGELES, CA — The polls have closed, the votes are being tallied, Republicans took the U.S. Senate, and Donald Trump has taken the White House.

With the repeal of the Affordable Healthcare Act on the line, control of the U.S. House of Representatives largely depends on the outcomes of several key congressional races in the Golden State.

California will likely get final say over who controls the U.S House of Representatives, and with votes too close to call Wednesday, Republican candidates all have the lead in California's six most competitive districts:

• Early returns Tuesday night had Representatives Michelle Steel, Ken Calvert and John Duarte trailing their challengers by small margins. However by Wednesday morning, all three Republican incumbents pulled ahead in their races.
• Katie Porter’s open seat in Orange County’s 47th District saw Democratic newcomer Dave Min opening up a small lead before Republican candidate Scott Baugh inched ahead by a point as midnight approached Tuesday.
• Republican incumbent Mike Garcia, in Los Angeles County, held a lead of less than three points, and the Central Valley’s Rep. David Valadao jumped out to a sizable 17 point lead over his Democratic challenger.

It was unclear how many ballots still remain to be counted in the various congressional districts. (Scroll down for real-time results of the 6 key races)

The key contests played out alongside the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, but also in unexpected corners of the country after what has been one of the most chaotic congressional sessions in modern times.

However, with a fraction of the ballots counted, the races remained far from certain late Tuesday night. Notably, several of these competitive districts traded frontrunners repeatedly in the initial days of ballot-counting in 2020.

See Also: CA's 10 Propositions: Real-Time Results for 2024

Cal State Fullerton political science professor Matt Jarvis said he believes Republicans will hang on to a majority in the House.

"I think Republicans are likely to hold on to a narrow majority, maybe 222-223, because I think there's going to be a heck of a lot more ticket- splitting than we've seen in recent years," Jarvis told City News Service. "I think there's going to be a lot of people who can't vote for (Donald) Trump, but who are very unhappy with inflation, and I think the only way they can send that message is to put Republicans in Congress."

Republican congressional candidates in Orange County would be likely cruising to victory if Trump were not on the ballot, Jarvis said.

"Trump is box office poison in urban Orange County," he said. "It's the reason why Democrats won the entire county in 2018. If you get rid of him the county is still a little leaning red."

For full coverage of the election in California, click here.

Patch visited the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s headquarters in Norwalk on Tuesday morning and spoke with voters as they exited the polls.

For Zach Hammond, an Orange County resident, said he was more concerned about whether the election would result in the passage of more progressive policies.

“I feel like this one is really important. We have some really big decisions being made here,” he said.

“I’m really hoping it will pan out the way it should pan out — we are able to get women’s rights back when it comes to taking control of their body; we are able to lower the cost of housing and rent; we're able to make more renewable energy sources rather than focusing on fossil fuels — really just progressive policies."

Vote counting in some races could extend well past Wednesday.

“We’re in striking distance in terms of taking back the House,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is in line to make history as the first Black speaker if his party wins control, said during a recent campaign swing through Southern California.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, drawing closer to Trump, predicts Republicans will keep “and grow” the majority. He took over after Kevin McCarthy was booted from the speaker’s office.

Select the district of your choice to see See Real-Time Results of the California U.S. House of Representatives Races:

Whichever party wins the bulk of the Golden State races currently rated as toss-ups, will be in a position to win control of the House. Both parties know that, and that is why California's congressional races that were starved for national funding in 2020 and 2022 turned into some of the most expensive naitionwide this year.

Both parties pumped millions of dollars into campaigns that stretch from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond groves and vineyards of the Central Valley farm belt.

Two years ago the state played a pivotal role in securing the gavel for Republicans. Headed into election night only a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies.

California has 52 House seats — more than any other state — and 10 are considered in play. About half of those are viewed as toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin statewide. But Republicans retain pockets of strength and picked up four House seats in 2020.

The most competitive contests were concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.

In fact, many of those districts were long-time GOP bastions until Trump ascended to the national stage repelling many Southern Californias Republicans known for being fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

California's electorate has shifted dramatically in the last decade, with the gap between registered Democratic and Republican voters growing.

The Following six races are considered the most watched statewide:

District 27: The fighter pilot and NASA chief

Democrats keep coming for Rep. Mike Garcia, and they will soon know if it paid off.

As of Wednesday morning, Garcia led Democratic challnger George Whitesides by roughly 5,000 votes, making the race too close to call.

The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Mike Garcia, a former Navy pilot who flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has displayed a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an 11-point Democratic registration edge. He is being challenged by Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.

The once-conservative 27th District runs through suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, was first elected running against California’s liberal-leaning government. “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become,” he said at the time.

Whitesides, who also is a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he would use his business experience to solve problems. He has spotlighted Garcia's opposition to abortion rights, labeling him an extremist.

Garcia put out a statement to clarify his stance on the issue, saying, “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s law on abortion stays the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”

The pair have been spending heavily on advertisements in the waning days of the campaign, with the candidates trading barbs on abortion rights, immigration and crime. The district has traditionally been a conservative stronghold, but thanks in part to the 2020 redrawing of the district boundaries, Democrats now outnumber Republicans, but the large number of independent voters could turn the tide.

Ironically, Californians on election night may have to look to similar congressional districts on the East Coast for a clue as to the outcome of the battle for House control, since the ballot-counting in California will take longer, Jarvis said.

Garcia is one of a handful of 19 vulnerable House Republicans who won in a district that went overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in 2020, and since then, the district has tilted leftward slightly due to redistricting. Through September, Whitesides had raised $8.6 million to Garcia's $5.6 million and went into the final month of the election with more cash in-hand, according to Ballotpedia.

A University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona poll in mid September showed Whitesides with a two-point lead among likely voters.

District 47: Will the resgnation of a progressive leader turn a coastal OC district red again?

Orange County once was considered a conservative holy ground, where white, suburban homeowners delivered winning margins for Republicans year after year. It's considered a foundation block in the Reagan revolution. But the county, which lies southeast of Los Angeles, has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time, like much of the state.

The seat from the 47th District, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surf breaks, is occupied by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite who in 2022 narrowly defeated former Republican state legislator Scott Baugh. Porter, known for grilling CEOs during Capitol Hill hearings, stepped aside to run for U.S. Senate but lost in the primary. Baugh is making another run for the seat, this time against Democratic legislator Dave Min.

As of Wednesday morning, Baugh was up by about 3,000 votes, making the race too close to call.

Baugh lost to Porter in the race two years ago.

Baugh said he was feeling more confident about winning than he was two years ago.

"We're cautiously optimistic in the sense that the vote trend from returns last night showed a clear surge toward Republicans, and all of those late ballots should favor Republicans," Baugh told City News Service.

Baugh estimates there are about 120,000 votes still to count. His team was estimating about 83% turnout, but, he added, "We don't know if it'll be 75 or 83."

Orange County Republican Chairman Fred Whitaker said, "I think we're going to be in very good shape in all the congressional races. Scott has a little margin right now that we're confident it will hold."

National Republicans have called the seat a top target.

Given the stakes in the closely divided district, the contest had been especially rancorous. Min ads call Baugh a corrupt “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights.

"For too long, corruption has been synonymous with Orange County politics, and my opponent Scott Baugh is a big part of the problem," Min claims. "As a CA legislator, Baugh was indicted for 22 counts of campaign finance fraud. As Chair of the OC GOP, Baugh oversaw a massive voter fraud scheme that led to 3 staffers going to jail on felony convictions."

For his part, Baugh says Min's “extreme liberal views” are out of step with the district.

"Because of (Min) your gas prices will rise by 65 cents. His voting record proves he only grandstands when it’s politically convenient and fails to take a stand when it really matters," he posted on Facebook. "Californians are fleeing the state because of the rising cost of living. Families are tired of high gas prices, and you should have enough money each month to save, not just scrape by."

In the closing days of the race, polling analysts at 538 gace Min with a slight lead over Baugh , through recent polls show Baugh gaining momentum. In a sign of how serious the national Democratic Party is about the 47th district, Former President Bill Clinton stumped for Min in Westminster heading into the final week of the race

Jarvis predicted that Min's drunken driving conviction may hurt his chances to defeating Baugh in the 47th District.

"The drunk driving thing really seems to have had legs," Jarvis said. "I hear it a lot. It's penetrated."

Jarvis said he sees more campaign signs supporting Steel in that district.

It is a mystery how the Vietnamese vote will break down in the district, he said. For "half a century" Vietnamese residents have voted Republican as the "anti-communist" party, he said.

But with a Vietnamese Democrat on the ballot, that could change, he said.

District 41: The Inland Empire Republican district is Democrats' White Whale

Rep. Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in California's congressional delegation, having been first elected in 1992. Two years ago he held off Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins by about 5 percentage points, and Rollins is back for another try.

On Wednesday morning, Calvert held one of the slimmest leads of all California incumbents. He was up by less than 2,300 votes.

The 41st District is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties: Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer have been among the recognized Democrats fundraising for Rollins.

Riverside County's 41st District will be interesting because it's a showdown between the more conservative part of the district in the Inland Empire and the more liberal Palm Springs, he said.
"That will be really interesting to see if it's possible to shift the center of gravity in that district," Jarvis said.

Calvert, who was first elected in 1992, defeated Rollins, 52.3%-47.7%, in 2022.

National Republicans have called Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert brings the advantages of incumbency, but his conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district that includes many transplanted Los Angeles residents and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ+ voters. Rollins is gay.

Rollins says it’s time for new leadership and has called Calvert an extremist whose views don't match the district.

All year polls have shown the two running neck and neck, though the polling gurus at 538 give Calvert the edge going into the final week of the campaign.

By mid October, Rollins' campaign had raised more $11.5 million compared to Calverts $7.5 million. House Speaker Mike Johnson stumped for Calvert, who also boasted the endorsement of the California Chamber of Commerce. He touted his experience as a small businessman and focused his campaign around economic issues such as inflation, and painted Rollins as an out-of-touch liberal.

Outside groups also made their presence felt in the market. Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign had reserved about $6.9 million in ad buys as of Mid October, according to AdImpact. Republican groups and the Calvert campaign had reserved about $5.8 million in advertising time.

In a rare campaign visit to California in October Republican nominee Donald Trump spoke near the district, telling the crowd “everybody needs to get out and vote for Ken.” Calvert also spoke at the rally and appealed to voters concerned about the cost of living and crime.

Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at California State University-Long Beach, said the addition of Palm Springs, with its large LGBTQ population, to Calvert's district has changed the political dynamic dramatically. He's anticipating a tight contest, just like in 2022.

“Can Calvert bring his old district, those people that he knows, up against this army of Palm Springs people?” Lesenyie said. “I think it comes down to mobilization. Maybe that last run for Rollins gave him a foothold on organizing so that it could push him over the line.”

District 22: Republican incumbent in a Democratic district

By the numbers, the Central Valley's 22nd District should be a Democratic stronghold. The party holds a 14-point registration edge over Republicans. But GOP Rep. David Valadao has kept a grip on the seat nonetheless.

He held the district from 2013 until January 2019, lost the seat for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox. Democrat Rudy Salas is trying to claim the seat this year after losing to Valadao in 2022.

On Wednesday morning, Valada led the race by nearly 10,000 votes, putting him in the best position of any of the California incumbents in tight races.

In a region sometimes called America’s salad bowl for its vast agricultural production, Valadao has stressed his efforts to secure more water for farmers and willingness to work across the aisle, while depicting Salas as a tax-and-spend Democrat. “David has ignored partisan bickering and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” the Valadao campaign said in a fundraising pitch.

Salas, considered a moderate, has depicted Valadao as a Trump follower posing as a centrist. In Congress, he says, he will fight for lower drug prices, expanded health care and clean drinking water, which remains a chronic problem in some rural communities.

Valadao was one of few House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump. It's not something he's reminding his base nearly as much as Democrats are.

The two remained virtually tied in most polling since summer, but 538 gives the incumbent a slight edge of nearly two points as of the final week of the race.

District 13: A Central Valley Democrat gets a rematch

In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte faced Adam Gray, the Democrat he defeated two years ago by one of the closest margins in the country, 564 votes. Duarte often is listed among the House's most vulnerable Republicans, given that narrow victory.

On Wednesday morning, the race remained close with less than 3,200 vites separaring the candidates.

Another factor is the 13th's Democratic tilt, which is about 11 points over registered Republicans. There also is a large Latino population, similar to other Central Valley districts, but the most likely voters statewide tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in getting to the polls.

Both candidates stressied their bipartisan credentials.

Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer, said his priorities include curbing inflation and crime and securing adequate supplies of water for farmers, a perennial issue in the valley.

Gray, a former legislator, has criticized state water management and puts water and agriculture at the top of his issues list. He also said he wants improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.

Going into October, Gray had outraised and outspent Duarte by roughly $1 million, but Duarte had more cash in-hand heading into the final month of the election. Polling has been limitted, but Gray appeared to have a slight edge, and 538 forecast a 5-point victory for Gray heading into the final week of the race.

District 45: Another tough fight in a district created to empower Asian Americans

Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, sought a third term in the 45th District, which was specifically drawn to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill.
The largest demographic in the district, which is anchored in Orange County, is Asian Americans, and includes the nation's biggest Vietnamese community. Democrats hold a 4-point registration edge.

The district is one of the most ethnically diverse, and though it represents Little Saigon, it has never had representative with Vietnamese roots.

Steel first won the seat in 2020 and then again 2022 with a 5-point win. This year she faces lawyer and worker rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.

After a slow start Tuesday night, Steel pulled ahead by a solid 11, 363 votes.

Steel has been outspoken in resisting tax increases and says she stands strongly with Israel in its war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always stand with Israel,” she said in a recent email. She advocates for more police funding and has spotlighted her efforts on domestic violence and sexual abuse.

Steel has staked out stances opposing abortion rights and gay marriage and the Equity Act, which prohibits discrimination based on sex and sexual orientation.

Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights. Steel opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, while not going so far as to support a federal ban. Tran also said a Trump return to the White House would put democracy at risk.
The race will be watched nationally for hints about the preferences of Asian American voters.

Steel had outraised and outspent Tran considerably. As of mid October, she had raised $9.4 million to his $5 million. Polling and forecasters show Tran and Steel at a dead heat going into Election Day.

In a sign of house serious the Democratic Party is about this race, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran.

The Associated Press and City News Service contributed to this report.