SoCal Storm: Updated Rainfall Forecast And Peak Times By County

LOS ANGELES, CA — Rainfall picked up across the Southland Thursday morning, but forecasters are expecting the brunt of the storm to arrive later in the day, bringing with it the possibility of flooding and mudslides.

The threat has already led to evacuation orders in Los Angeles and Orange counties, and officials say the number of people ordered to leave their homes could increase.

The storm system began with light rain Wednesday and into Thursday morning. The rain is expected to intensify as the day goes on. The heaviest rainfall is expected in Los Angeles County between 3 and 10 p.m. Meantime, precipitation will become heavier for Orange County and southwestern San Bernardino County Thursday afternoon before spreading toward the southeast in the evening, according to the National Weather Service.

The heaviest rainfall is expected around Los Angeles and Orange counties.

During peak periods, rain will fall at rates between a half inch and an inch per hour — or even faster in foothill and mountain areas, the NWS said.

Lines of enhanced rain organizing over #SantaBarbara #SanLuisObispo and northward. These bands are expected to intensify further over the next few hours, moving north to south. Be prepared for sudden downpours & flooded roads. Follow guidance from local officials. #cawx #larain pic.twitter.com/ehTGFlcV22
— NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) February 13, 2025

The most critical period of the storm will be from 4 to 9 p.m., NWS Meteorologist Ariel Cohen said.

"That the time period when we're expecting the most intense rains coming through," Cohen said, saying the elevated rainfall rates can lead to significant flooding and burn scar debris flows.

Evacuation Warnings And Orders

Evacuation warnings went into effect at 7 a.m. Thursday for recent burn areas within the city of Los Angeles, including areas around the Palisades, Sunset and Hurst fires. Additional warnings were in place in Malibu as well as in areas near the Eaton Fire burn zone: Altadena and Monrovia.

Meantime, earlier evacuation warnings for parts of Sierra Madre were upgraded to mandatory evacuation orders.

A map of evacuation warnings and orders across Los Angeles County is available on Genasys Protect.

Some other residents were subjected to mandatory evacuation orders on a case-by-case basis. Those people were notified directly by law enforcement that they would be required to leave their homes.

Within the Los Angeles Police Department's jurisdiction, that included 106 in the Palisades Fire area, nine in the Sunset Fire area and four in the Hurst Fire area, police Chief Jim McDonnell said.

In the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department jurisdiction, that included nine in Altadena, 49 in Malibu, five in San Dimas and 35 in Palmdale, according to Sheriff Robert Luna.

Orange County authorities issued evacuation warnings for certain areas around the Airport Fire burn scar and said residents were "strongly encouraged" to evacuate by 8 a.m. Thursday.

The warnings were upgraded to mandatory orders to evacuate Thursday at around noon for areas in Trabuco Canyon, including the RC Airport, fire station, campground/park and school; as well as Bell Canyon, including Starr Ranch; and Hot Springs Canyon, including Lazy-W Ranch, due to possible debris flows.

Evacuation warnings remained in place for Long Canyon and Modjeska Canyon.

Information about evacuation orders and warnings near the Airport Fire burn area is available on the OC Sheriff's Department website.

"Please, if evacuation orders are made, ... keep your safety in mind," Luna said. "They help to protect you and your loved ones from potential danger. Storms can bring sudden and severe conditions that make staying back home extremely risky ... Please take necessary steps now to prepare."

Those ordered to leave should expect to be gone for several days, Luna said.

Flooding And Landslides

Officials urged to prepare by packing an emergency kit, securing important documents and create plans for family members and pets. More guidance on evacuation prep is available on the LAFD website.

A flash flood watch was issued by the NWS for the bulk of Los Angeles County for Thursday morning through Thursday evening, with forecasters saying flooding and debris flows are possible, with the greatest risk in or near the Eaton, Palisades/Franklin and Bridge fire burn scars.

A flood watch will also be in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday night for most of Orange County.

The NWS has described the multi-day storm system as likely to be "the biggest precipitation producer so far this season."

Only about a quarter-inch of rain was expected to fall on Wednesday, but by the time the brunt of the storm exits the area on Friday, roughly 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected in most coastal and valley areas, with 3 to 6 inches anticipated in the foothills and mountains — including the Palisades and Eaton fire areas.

Rainfall rates that exceed a half-inch per hour can lead to mud and debris flows, although factors such as topography, the soil system, geology and the status of the flood control system all contribute to the potential for such occurrences, LA County Public Works Director Mark Pestrella said.

At the peak of the storm, rainfall rates are expected to be twice that, forecasters said.

How Much Rain Has Fallen So Far

Here's how much rain the NWS has measured so far, as of 10 a.m. Thursday

• San Onofre — 2.04 inches
• Coto de Caza — 1.66 inches
• Porter Ranch — 1.57 inches
• Mt. Baldy — 1.39 inches
• Lagna Niguel — 1.18 inches
• Eagle Rock — 1.08 inches
• Fallbrook — 1.07 inches
• Chino Hills — 1.03 inches
• Sepulveda Canyon — 0.99 inches
• Anaheim Hills — 0.95 inches
• Beaumont — 0.90 inches
• Oceanside — 0.84 inches
• Santa Monica — 0.78 inches
• Beverly Hills — 0.78 inches
• LAX — 0.72 inches
• Hollywood Reservoir — 0.70 inches
• Culver City — 0.69 inches
• Northridge — 0.67 inches
• Ontario Airport — 0.67 inches
• Downtown LA — 0.66 inches
• Long Beach — 0.64 inches
• Costa Mesa — 0.63 inches
• Burbank — 0.55 inches
• Sierra Madre — 0.55 inches
• Hawthorne — 0.49 inches
• Encinitas — 0.34 inches
• Cabazon — 0.25 inches
• San Diego International Airport — 0.21 inches
• Palm Springs Airport — 0.14 inches

San Luis Obispo's Rocky Butte saw the most rain across the Central Coast and Southern California: by 10 a.m., 6.46 inches had already fallen. Forecasters expect that region to see as much as 10 inches of rain by the time the storm is over.

Road Closures

Pacific Coast Highway remains closed to the public between Chautauqua Boulevard in Pacific Palisades and Carbon Beach Terrace in Malibu due to concerns about possible mud slides or debris flows. Topanga Canyon Boulevard was closed between PCH and Grand View Drive.

A series of road closures were also in effect in Malibu, including:

• Malibu Canyon Road between Piuma Road and Adamson Flats
• Only residents were being given access to Las Flores Canyon Road between Rambla Pacifico and PCH
• Piuma Road between Cold Canyon and Rambla Pacifico roads
• Rambla Pacifico between Piuma and Las Flores Canyon roads
• Saddle Peak Road between Stunt and Tuna Canyon roads
• Schueren Road between Saddle Peak and Piuma roads
• Tuna Canyon between Saddle Peak and PCH

Good morning! ☔️😀 Taking a look from above, you can see a large area of low pressure moving into California. Light showers will be turning heavier later this afternoon and especially overnight. Drive safely out there, my friends 🚘🚚 #CAwx pic.twitter.com/PGk7cjdrF7
— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) February 13, 2025

City News Service contributed to this report.