Climbing Energy Use Pacing Renewable Demands

PALO ALTO, CA -- The canary in the coal mine has never been more trapped.

Global fossil fuel emissions are on track to rise for a second year in a row, primarily due to growing energy use, according to new estimates from the Global Carbon Project, an initiative led by Stanford University scientist Rob Jackson.

A new study shows that many renewable energy projects around the world are largely coming online as add-ons to fossil fuel energy sources rather than replacements, Stanford University News Service reported.

So there's nowhere to go but up -- in use and temperature in that order.

The new projections come in a week when international negotiators are gathering in the coal-mining city of Katowice, Poland, to work out the rules for implementing the Paris climate agreement. Under the 2015 accord, hundreds of nations pledged to cut carbon emissions and keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures.

“We thought, perhaps hoped, emissions had peaked a few years ago,” said Jackson, a professor of Earth system science in Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences called Stanford Earth. “After two years of renewed growth, that was wishful thinking.”

The Global Carbon Project’s report, titled “Global Energy Growth Is Outpacing Decarbonization,” appeared Dec. 5 in the peer-reviewed Environmental Research Letters, with more detailed data published simultaneously in Earth System Science Data.

The group estimates global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources – which represent roughly 90 percent of all emissions from human activities – will reach a record high of just over 37 billion tons in 2018, an increase of 2.7 percent over the emissions output reported in 2017. Emissions from non-fossil sources, such as deforestation, are projected to add nearly 4.5 billion tons of carbon emissions to the 2018 total.

“Global energy demand is outpacing powerful growth in renewables and energy efficiency,” said Jackson, who is also a senior fellow at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy. “The clock is ticking in our struggle to keep warming below 2 degrees.”

Cars, coal and cold weather

In the United States, emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to increase 2.5 percent in 2018 after a decade of declines. Culprits for the increase include unusual weather – a cold winter in the East and a warm summer across much of the nation. The incidents have ramped up energy needs for seasonal heating and cooling – as well as a growing appetite for oil in the face of low gas prices, the news service indicated.

“We’re driving more miles in bigger cars, changes that are outpacing improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency,” Jackson explained. Overall, U.S. oil use is on track to rise by more than 1 percent this year compared to 2017.

Consumption of one fossil fuel, however, is no longer on the rise: coal. The study shows coal consumption in Canada and the United States has dropped by 40 percent since 2005, and in 2018 alone the United States is expected to take a record-setting 15 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity offline.

“Market forces and the drive for cleaner air are pushing countries toward natural gas, wind and solar power,” Jackson said. “This change will not only reduce CO2 emissions but will also save lives lost to air pollution.”

More information can be obtained at Stanford Science Digest.

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