How A La Niña Winter Could Affect CT Home Heating Bills

CONNECTICUT — Heating costs in Connecticut and most of the rest of the country should be about the same as last year as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather associated with a La Niña climate pattern, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in Connecticut and the Northeast are expected to be:

• Natural gas: Natural gas customers should pay about the same as they did last year — an average of about $772 for the season. Gas prices have stabilized after a spike two years ago and this year's winter is forecast to include above-normal temperatures, which could still be colder than last year's unusually warm winter with very little snow. U.S. natural gas inventories have generally been more than the previous five-year average for most of the past two years, but more recently, inventories are approaching near-normal levels.
• Electricity: Northeast households may pay slightly more because of colder weather. A forecast slightly colder winter than last year may increase bills up to 5 percent with an average winter season expense of $1,391 per household.
• Propane: Those who prefer propane for heat should pay about the same as last year due to a combination of lower wholesale prices and an increase in consumption use because of a more typical winter than last year's warmer season. The average Northeast household that uses propane should be expected to pay about $1,674 for the season.
• Heating oil: The energy forecasters estimate that U.S. households that use heating oil for space heating will consume an average of about 400 gallons of heating oil this winter, or 4 percent more than last winter. Offsetting that will be lower heating oil prices, averaging $3.50 per gallon, down 9 percent from last winter. At this price, homes that primarily heat with heating oil will spend an average of $1,410 this winter, about a 5 percent drop from last year.

That’s assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for warmer-than-average temperatures from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska.

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While lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs in most of the country, one exception is the Midwest, where last winter was very mild. With a more seasonal winter expected this year, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

The southern U.S. is another exception. Winter in that part of the country is expected to be mild and heating costs could be lower than last winter, according to the forecast.

The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the EIA said.