How Much Snow Can CT Expect This Winter? New Forecast, Details Released

CONNECTICUT — How cold and snowy will the upcoming winter be in Connecticut? A new AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast released this week predicts that most areas in the Northeast will receive more snow this season than last winter.

The private weather company said in its forecast, released this week, that winter will have some “meteorological twists and turns” that could bring bursts of heavy snow and blasts of bitterly cold air.

Meteorological winter begins on Sunday, Dec. 1, and astronomical winter begins on Dec. 21, the date of the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year.

Here in Connecticut, forecasters are calling for a colder and snowier December than we've grown used to. That will be followed by a new weather pattern in the opening weeks of 2025 that will promote milder air and less snow across the eastern half of the nation.

“La Niña will be weak for most of the winter,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and long-range expert Paul Pastelok said. “A weaker La Niña can allow other signals to drive the pattern, more variability throughout the winter.”

February is the most probable month for the arrival of a polar vortex — a large area of cold, low-pressure air rotating counterclockwise around Earth’s poles that can expand in the winter and send cold air southward. However, there’s less certainty this year about when, or if, the extreme cold air will make it to the continental U.S.

Most areas in the Northeast and Midwest will see more snow this year than last, with predictions returning to near historical averages in cities such as Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Buffalo, New York.

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A backend surge to winter will bring the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and through the Northeast, according to Pastelok.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and other Midwest states could also see an uptick in snow. However, periods of snowy, cold weather could be broken up by the arrival of milder air from the Pacific flows across the country, beginning in early 2025, according to AccuWeather.

Winter is expected to feel like an extension of fall in the South, central southern Plains states, through the Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. When storms do arrive, they could bring a heightened risk of severe weather.

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“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok. “With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”

Mild weather is expected to continue across parts of the West, while the frequency of rain (or snow in the Mountains) could increase in November and December

“I think skiing in the West is looking really good,” Pastelok said. “I think it’s going to get kick-started right for the holiday season.”

The ski season in the mountains of Southern California, northern Arizona and New Mexico could come to an early end, but conditions look good in the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies.

That’s what happened in the La Niña winter of 2022-23 when nearly 40 atmospheric rivers hit the western U.S., many of which impacted California.