Earl Projected to Graze Connecticut Coast

Update, 1:28 p.m.: The latest National Weather Service bulletin says there's a 48% chance of tropical storm conditions in lower Fairfield County, up from 40% in the last update.

"There is an increasing chance for combined storm surge and astronomical tide waters up to 2 to 3 feet above mean sea level within areas closer to the coast, resulting in worst case flood inundation up to 1 to 2 feet above ground level somewhere within the surge zone," the NWS reports.

"Large waves Friday into the weekend will cause substantial beach erosion," the service adds.

Earl is projected to pass some 150 miles east of Montauk Friday night. As of 12 p.m., the storm center was about 680 miles south of New York City.

Update, 12:27 p.m.: Evidently those maps weren't accurate after all. Corrected versions show a tropical storm watch still in effect for lower Fairfield County.

The National Weather Service also projects a 20-30% chance of a storm surge over two feet and a 5-10% chance of a surge over four feet along Darien's coastline.

Update, 11:23 a.m.: The National Weather Service hasn't issued a new statement for Fairfield County in the past several hours, but if the latest round of NWS maps is accurate, the county is no longer under a tropical storm watch.

That said, a tropical storm warning has been issued for New Haven and points east as well as a hurricane warning for parts of Rhode Island and most of the Massachusetts coastline.

Even without tropical storm conditions, Darien could still experience significant wind, rainfall, waves, and storm surge.

"Do not focus on the exact forecast track," the NWS warns. "Impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane can be felt several hundred miles away."

Update, 9:00 a.m.: The projected path of Hurricane Earl as it glances our region pushed a bit further to the east overnight, but lower Fairfield County remained under a tropical storm watch as of 8 a.m. The National Weather Service said there's now a 40-50% chance of tropical storm force winds affecting Darien and a 10%-20% chance of winds topping 58 mph.

Earl strengthened further overnight with maximum sustained winds reaching 145 mph, but the NWS said it expects the storm to begin weakening later today.

Information on the town's preparations is available here, while the Connecticut Chapter of the American Red Cross and Connecticut Light & Power have released their own statements on the storm's approach.

Update, 8:05 p.m.: As of 8 p.m., the National Weather Service said that the probability of Lower Fairfield County experiencing tropical storm conditions had climbed slightly to 40 percent, though the NWS's models still projected winds to stay "just below tropical storm force." 

The odds of hurricane conditions are "very low," the service said, but coastal areas of the county could still experience a four- to six-foot storm surge in a worst case scenario. 

"There is a general concern for the chance of areas of minor to moderate coastal flooding," the NWS said. "The best chance of moderate flooding will be across western Long Island Sound."

The NWS also warned of "life threatening" rip currents along Atlantic-facing shores.

Original article: The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the Connecticut shoreline and much of the New England coast as Hurricane Earl continues to clamber up the Eastern Seaboard.

As of 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center reported that Earl had picked up some strength lost earlier in the day to regain its category 4 designation, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 135 mph.

The NHC predicts that the center of the storm will pass to the east of Long Island some time Friday night, avoiding a direct hit to the Tri-State Region but still potentially wreaking havoc with wind, heavy rain, large waves, and storm surges.

The alert means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the area, generally within 48 hours.

As of 5 p.m., the storm was several hundred miles east of the Bahamas moving northwest at 17 mph. Hurricane force winds extended up to 90 miles from the center, while tropical storm winds reached up to 200 miles away.

The latest projections give lower Fairfield Country a 30-40 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds—defined by a sustained speed of over 39 mph—and a 5-10% chance of experiencing winds in excess of 58 mph.

A topical storm watch is in effect all the way from Sandy Hook, N.J. to Woods Hole, Mass. and in northern Massachusetts. 

Meanwhile, a hurricane watch is in effect further up the coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Mass and coastal areas from southern Virginia to Sandy Hook are under a tropical storm warning.

By late Thursday, the center of Earl is expected to approach the North Carolina shore, which is now under a hurricane warning.

Keep it at Patch for more as the situation develops.