The Experts Speak

Anyone who wants to know me need only look at the occupants of my bookcase.

There are a number of books about the railroad (my having spent 30 years in passenger service), as well as books about baseball, with particular emphasis on the New York Yankees.

Other tomes include, "The Power Broker," Robert A. Caro's look at "master builder" Robert Moses, "The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich," by William L. Shirer, and George Orwell's masterworks, "Animal Farm," and, "Nineteen Eighty Four."

Oh, there are some humorous additions as well; "Sein Language," by Jerry Seinfeld, and, "Brain Droppings," by George Carlin, as well as a few "Dilbert" entries.

Among the books that stand out is one called, "The Experts Speak," by Christopher Cerf. Mr. Cerf's book deals with folks who were considered knowledgeable in their field, giving their opinion on people or things, only later to be proved quite wrong.

Some examples:

"A Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor is a strategic impossibility." Major George Fielding Eliot, author and military science writer, in his article, "The Impossible War With Japan," in The American Mercury magazine, September, 1938.

"Hitler is a queer fellow who will never become Chancellor; the best he can hope for is to head the Postal Department." Paul von Hindenburg, President of Germany, 1931.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." Lord Kelvin, mathematician, physicist, and President of the British Royal Society, 1897.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, October 17th, 1929.

"The only way Star Wars could have been exciting was through its visual imagination and special effects. Both are unexceptional." New Republic film critic Stanley Kauffman, June 18th, 1977.

"We don't like their sound. Groups of guitars are on their way out." A Decca Records executive turning down the Beatles after their audition, January, 1962.

"You ain't goin' nowhere, son. You ought to go back to drivin' a truck." Grand Ole Opry manager Jim Denny to Elvis Presley, September 25th, 1954.

You get the idea.

I have been, to use a line from Stevie Wonder, "amazed but not amused" at the "experts" past and present who would bloviate on the subject of Tweed-New Haven Regional Airport, and whether any improvements were warranted as it "obviously" wasn't going anywhere.

The experts have dwelled on a number of airport-related issues, most notably questioning the airport's ability to develop a customer base to safely accommodate commercial passenger aircraft.

Consider:

"The airport management has devised a master plan of grandiose proportions, and expects the airport to fulfill the plan."

"Tweed-New Haven Airport is an accident waiting to happen."

"There's no market for commercial passenger service out of Tweed because you have Bradley International Airport so close by."

"The airport is is nothing but a drain on taxpayer dollars."

"Tweed-New Haven Airport has no business in the Morris Cove!"

"The new terminal should stay on the New Haven side because Townsend Avenue is better-equipped to handle automobile traffic."

"Tweed was never meant to be anything more than a 'Piper Cub' airport."

"If Tweed Airport expands, property values will fall, 'the wrong kind of people' will move in, and we'll be another Newark."

"The Allegheny Airlines plane crash proves that Tweed is unsafe for commercial air traffic."

So how have the experts fared?

In the matter of a "market," Tweed's passenger boardings went from 53,355 enplanements in 2019 to 57,000 enplanements in 2021 to 701,000 enplanements in 2022 (Avelo Airlines' first year of operation) to 969,000 enplanements in 2023-2024. Currently there are 30 destinations available, not only to Florida, but to cities such as Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Nashville and New Orleans, cities that only five years ago weren't even on the radar. The Connecticut Airport Authority, which manages Bradley International Airport, even went so far as to claim that Bradley experienced a drop-off in enplanements due to Tweed's growth. "No market"? You tell me.

As for the airport being "unsafe," airport management has taken great strides to improve navigational access by cutting trees in the approach path to the north end of the runway, and FAA-approved plans are in the works to extend the runway another 900-plus feet to almost 6,600 feet in length.

While the airport was subsidized by taxpayer dollars in the past, it is now managed by Avports, a private airport management firm, removing it from city subsidy. Moreover, a recent study by UConn's Center for Economic Analysis shows the airport contributing $444 million to the state, and $368 million to New Haven County through the year 2027. Pretty good, eh?

And how has the Morris Cove fared since that prediction of fifty years ago that "we'll be 'another Newark'"? DataHaven figures show the neighborhood as having the highest home ownership rate in the city at 80%, the lowest proportion of low-income residents at 9%, and, at 79%, is still overwhelmingly white. Hardly "another Newark."

And due to the airport's surprising growth, a new terminal building will be situated on the east side of the field, which will offer easier access from four-lane Hemingway Avenue versus two-lane Townsend Avenue and Fort Hale Road. At a proposed 84,000 square feet, it will be more than twice as large as the current terminal setup. (A little history lesson: The current building was ostensibly an "interim" terminal constructed for the 1995 Special Olympics until a more "permanent" structure could be built." Hmmm...)

I'd say the above statements by the experts haven't aged well.

As stated earlier, "The Experts Speak" quoted people who established a reputation in their respective fields, so one could assume they had some background, some experience to back their comments.

So, who are the "experts" past and present who have opined on the airport? Are they persons who have spent the better part of their lives in airport operations and airline management? Are they versed in infrastructure engineering and environmental sciences? Not exactly. Their occupations have ranged from school crossing guard to hair stylist to advertising executive to realtor to a self-described "scientist" to a now-former state representative who is part-owner of a beach club that, coincidentally, sits right in the approach path to Tweed's runway.

So, what made them experts? They were deemed so by the local media by virtue of having the misfortune of being situated near the airport. The media never fact-checked their statements nor their qualifications. After all, who was the media going to trust? Someone who'd spent the better part of their careers working around airports, aircraft and the environment? Or a school crossing guard who obtained a copy of Jane's Book Of Commercial Aircraft, and became an instant authority on the BAE-146 passenger jet? Look at how the legacy media has embraced teenager Greta Thunberg on environmental matters.

Now, with tools such as Chat/GPT, it's easier than ever to be an "expert" in any field you choose because you now have Artificial Intelligence to cherry-pick any factoids that you deem useful. (By the way, this author chooses not to resort to Chat/GPT. Not yet, anyway.)

"So, do you consider yourself and "expert?," you may ask. Heavens, no! I'm just someone who has followed and observed Tweed for a long time, although I did serve on the old Board of Airport Commissioners from 1991 to 1995. But I will be the first to tell you I'm no expert. Take my ruminations as you see fit.

What I am telling you is to take the word of "experts" with a grain of salt, because sometimes those "pros" just may be more like "cons."

[Contrary to what you've heard, Tweed is a great airport. But don't take my word for it. Find us on Facebook in "As The Beacon Turns" and "Tweed Facts"!]