El Niño Is Here Early, And It May Get Strong: What That Means For FL

FLORIDA — El Niño has arrived earlier than usual, ending the three-year run of its counterpart La Niña, and scientists are already preparing for the possibility that this iteration of the climate phenomenon may prove to be particularly strong.

With El Niño still in its early stage, there are signals in extended climate outlooks for a warmer and wetter summer ahead for the Sunshine State and the broader Southeast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed El Niño's formation Thursday, predicting it will stick around into the winter, potentially fanning more extreme weather events in Florida and across the globe.

"El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern—changes global atmospheric circulation in known ways, giving us an idea of potential upcoming weather and climate patterns," said Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist writing for NOAA. "A stronger El Niño means global temperature, rain, and other patterns are more likely to reflect the expected El Niño impacts."

Climatologists are confident in at least a moderate strength pattern developing — placing the odds at 84 percent — and the probabilities of a strong event are fairly high at 56 percent. There is a 25 percent chance that it evolves into a "supersized" event.

El Niño can help tamp down on Atlantic hurricane activity, but forecasters worry that may not happen this time due to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures counteracting the helpful effects of El Niño's winds.

The pattern has also been responsible for most record heat years, including in 2016 and 1998, and this year could soar to new heights.

"The onset of El Niño has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background," Marshall Shepard, a metrology professor, told the Associated Press.

Usually, the weather phenomenon's impacts are less pronounced in the summer and stronger in the winter. Since it formed a month or two ahead of schedule, its impacts this year could become apparent early. In the United States, El Niño is most associated with warmer, drier conditions in northern states as cool and wet patterns develop further south, including in Florida.

As NOAA explains:

"El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding."

Should El Niño continue to gain strength, scientists caution it could fan more extreme weather events in areas already hit hard by the effects of a changing climate.

"Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," Michelle L'Heureux, a NOAA climate scientist, told the AFP. "Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño. For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño."

Another potential impact to watch out for in the summer is warmer sea-surface temperatures creating more favorable conditions for harmful toxic algae blooms to form.

"Cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae, thrive in warmer weather and can multiply rapidly when excess nutrients and pollutants are present," said Jessica Frost, scientific director for water tech company BlueGreen. "These eruptions produce dangerous toxins that can sicken people and pets and contaminate seafood and drinking water supplies."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.