New Poll Finds Trump, Biden In Dead Heat As About 75 Percent Of Florida Voters Have Already Made Up Their Minds

From the Florida Phoenix:

By Michael Moline
September 18, 2020

President Trump and Joe Biden were running a statistical dead heat in Florida according to a poll published this week, with Trump supporters more enthusiastic about voting for him than Biden’s supporters are about the Democrat.

Additionally, about three-fourths of Florida voters have already made up their minds.

The findings come in a survey of three Sunbelt states — Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina — conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 13 by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Cook Political Report. Pollsters interviewed 3,479 voters across the three states, including 1,009 in Florida.

In Florida, Biden led Trump by a single percentage point — 43 percent to 42 percent — but the report detailing the findings says the difference was within the margin for error (which it does not identify).

“Most voters have made up their minds about how they will vote for president, with results suggesting very close elections in each of the three Sun Belt states included in this project,” it says.

The findings suggest that the candidates have solidified their support among the key bases — for Trump, conservatives, rural, and white people with lower education levels; Biden is pulling Blacks, liberals, and voters who went with Hillary Clinton four years ago.

In Florida, 74 percent of Trump supporters were very enthusiastic about him, compared to 60 percent among Biden voters. Seventy-nine percent of Florida Republicans said they definitely would vote for Trump while 5 percent said they definitely or likely would support the Democrat. Eighty-three percent of Democrats definitely would vote for Biden and 2 percent would vote for Trump.

“While Biden voters may not be as enthusiastic about their vote choice as Trump voters, this doesn’t mean that they aren’t motivated to vote. Instead, their motivation may be less for their vote choice, and more against President Trump,” the report says.

One in five respondents were swing voters “but that doesn’t mean all of these votes are up for grabs,” the report says. One in 10 swing voters across the three states were truly undecided and a similar number probably would vote for one candidate but remained uncertain.

“The crucial group of voters who have not yet decided who they plan to vote for in the 2020 election are younger, and larger shares identify as political moderates and independents. In addition, a larger share of swing voters than decided voters are Hispanic voters. They are also more likely to approve of former Vice President Biden than President Trump,” the report says.

Also in Florida, Biden enjoyed a 30-point advantage in the number of respondents who viewed him positively compared to Trump.

Sixty-seven percent of Republicans said they were more motivated to vote this year than they were in 2016; for Democrats, the number was 63 percent and for independents 55 percent.

Biden enjoyed a 15-point lead over Trump among Florida respondents in who’d be better on race relations and 7 points each on COVID-19 and health care. Trump had a 12-point lead on handling the economy and 1 point on policing.

Among Democrats in all three states, the biggest concern was COVID (28 percent). Among Republicans and independents it was the economy (52 percent and 31 percent, respectively). Florida voters also prioritized the economy, with 34 percent calling it their top issue.

This story was originally published by the Florida Phoenix. For more stories from the Florida Phoenix, visit FloridaPhoenix.com.