Community Corner
Poll Of Battleground States Shows Biden Leading Trump, But Also Evidence Of A Coming Dogfight
Trump's vapid attempts to campaign on China and crime — as opposed to COVID-19 and the economy — don't seem to be catching fire.
By Michael Moline
August 13, 2020
President Trump’s attempts to campaign on China and crime — as opposed to COVID-19 and the economy — don’t seem to be catching fire, according to a Change Research survey of voters in six battleground states, including Florida, released this week.
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Democrat Joe Biden is holding a 50-44 percent lead over the president in Florida, the biggest battleground state, and enjoying leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “But things are more competitive in Arizona and North Carolina where Trump and Biden are at parity,” the survey said.
Only in North Carolina did Trump lead, by 48-47 percent.
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Meanwhile, 58 percent of Florida respondents disapproved of DeSantis’ COVID-19 performance, compared to 42 percent who approved. The governor’s approach polled worse even than President Trump’s, whose approval rating of handling the pandemic in battleground states was 44 percent, the survey noted.
The survey was conducted before Biden selected U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California as his running mate.
The pollsters surveyed 2,701 likely voters Aug. 7-9 in the six states plus another 2,143 likely voters nationally. The margin for error of the battleground poll was plus or minus 1.89 percentage points and for the national poll was 2.12 points. Change Research, in the San Francisco Bay area, published their findings on Wednesday.
Biden led 50-44 percent in the national poll and by 4 points across the battleground states.
A Mason Dixon poll released on July 30 gave Biden a narrow lead — 50-46 percent — over Trump in Florida. Four percent were undecided. The margin for error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A FiveThirtyEight.Com roundup of recent Florida polling shows Biden with leads of between 3 points and 7 points since late July, although he tied with Trump in one survey and Trump led by 1 point in a Morning Consult survey published July 28.
In the Change Research battleground survey, 46 percent approved of Trump’s performance and 44 percent of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Despite the President’s executive action, voters in the swing states are split 50-50 over who would do a better job handling the economic recovery from COVID-19,” the survey said.
“Battleground voters continue to express their preference for Biden and Democrats when it comes to handling COVID-19. That is particularly true in Florida, where 55 percent prefer Biden and Democrats,” the pollsters wrote.
“They also continue to trust Biden and Democrats more to make health care more affordable. Health care costs were issue No. 1 prior to the pandemic and the subsequent economic crash, and they remain the third most cited issue in a forced choice of important issues.”
As the pollsters note, “Trump has aligned himself with police departments and suggested more crime and worse policing under Biden and Democrats.”
Still, nationally, Biden enjoyed a 4-point lead on who would handle crime better. But in the battleground states, Trump had a 2-point lead against Biden.
Likewise, Biden enjoyed a 6-point lead on dealing with China. But the president performed better in the battleground states, leading 2 points on the China issue.
This story was originally published by the Florida Phoenix. For more stories from the Florida Phoenix, visit FloridaPhoenix.com.
