What 5 Forecasts Predict For The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is only a few days away, and several forecasters have released their predictions for the months to come.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Another busy season is anticipated, although most forecasts say it won't be as supercharged as 2024, when hurricanes Helene and Milton contributed to the third-costliest year on record.

Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered “hyperactive,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal.

Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.

“Everything is in place for an above-average season," he said.

Here are five different forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:

NOAA: 13 to 19 named storms

Forecasters are predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season once again, with 13 to 19 named storms, Graham said at a news conference this week.

Six to 10 of these storms will strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five of them are expected to become major hurricanes of a Category 3 or above, Graham said.

There’s a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.

There are several factors influencing this year’s hurricane forecast, including warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.

AccuWeather: 13 to 18 named storms

AccuWeather forecasters said the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could be an energetic one. Forecasters predict 13 to 18 named storms could form this year, with the season peaking on Sept. 19.

The Atlantic waters are still warmer than usual this year, contributing to a potentially flourishing and "explosive development" this hurricane season. Similar water conditions led to several "super-charged" hurricanes battering Florida in 2024, AccuWeather said.

Forecasters said seven to 10 of the named storms could become hurricanes, and of those, three to five could reach Category 3 major status or higher. As for how many of these storms could directly hit the United States, AccuWeather surmises three to six.

Tropical weather can be expected as early as June and could ramp up by the end of the year, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a news release.

Colorado State University: 17 named storms

Researchers at Colorado State University predict the 2025 hurricane season will be above-normal and that warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures could fuel the development of 17 named storms. Researchers predict nine of those storms will reach hurricane status and four will become major hurricanes.

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," Colorado State researchers said. "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season."

Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic #hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors. pic.twitter.com/IgbGW2wcvc
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) March 5, 2025

Colorado State's forecast underscores how warming oceans are priming the Atlantic for decades of above-average hurricane seasons, Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State and the forecast’s lead author, told The Washington Post.

“Maybe this is just going to be another one of those,” Klotzbach said.

The Weather Channel: 19 storms, 9 forming to hurricanes

The forecast team at Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company is expecting fewer hurricanes this season, but the threat to the U.S. Gulf and East coasts remains high.

"We expect 19 storms to form in 2025, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger," forecasters said in the network's outlook released last month.

That's above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, forecasters said, and a couple of hurricanes shy of 2024's total of 11 hurricanes.

"Since 1950, 23 percent of all North Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.," wrote Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. His team also found hints that the U.S. landfall threat could be larger this season due to computer models suggesting the pattern of winds aloft that guide hurricanes could steer more storms toward the coast.

Climate Adaptation Center: 17 named storms

The Climate Adaptation Center in Sarasota is predicting an "active" season, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

The season will be fueled by warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, a warm Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and abundant mid-level moisture because of reduced Saharan dust and active African easterly waves, the center said.

“We’re looking at another potentially dangerous year for the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida,” said Bob Bunting, the center’s CEO and an atmospheric scientist. “Rapid intensification remains one of our greatest threats, especially when it occurs near the coast, leaving little time for communities to prepare.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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