Hurricane Forecasters Predict Less Storms

If this hurricane season seems a little slow, forecasters seem to think so too.

Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are downgrading a previous forecast calling for a busier season.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has produced two named tropical systems so far that grew into full-fledged hurricanes.

Arthur made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 storm in July, with top winds of 100 mph. Bertha, which is dissipating as an extratropical low-pressure system in the Canadian maritimes, had top winds of 80 mph after battering The Bahamas.

“We are more confident that a below-normal season will occur because atmospheric and oceanic conditions that suppress cyclone formation have developed and will persist,” said NOAA lead forecaster Gerry Bell.

The updated hurricane forecast predicts seven to 12 total named storms with winds exceeding 39 mph. Of those 12, three to six are expected to grow into hurricanes, characterized by winds in excess of 74 mph.

Of the three to six hurricanes, up to two are forecast to attain Category 3 status, with winds in excess of 111 mph.

May forecasts predicted eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes.

NOAA forecasters say ocean conditions, like the weather phenomenon “El Niño” in the Pacific, will contribute to inhibiting storm development in the Atlantic.

Bell says coastal communities aren’t out of the woods.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes can strike the U.S. during below-normal seasons,” Bell said.

Case in point: Hurricane Andrew struck suburban Miami in late August 1992 as category 5 storm with winds at landfall of around 165 mph, one of the strongest landfalling storms in modern American history. It was the first named system during what was characterized as “below-normal” season.

“It’s important to remember it only takes one landfalling storm to cause disaster,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan to AccuWeather.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Photo credit: Flickr/NOAA