Orlando RE Agent Smith-Younger Adults Will Need $8500 Monthly for Rent

According to Spectrum News, “Housing affordability ranked as the third biggest issue for millennials, fourth for Gen Xers and sixth for Baby Boomers.” HousingWire said: “More than 90% of Gen Z adults said that housing affordability is their No. 1 issue heading into the presidential election this fall.” Both of those were June 2024 reports.

‘How do you retire if rent is $8,500?’ Orlando real estate agent Freddie Smith asked in a TikTok video earlier this year. That is what Smith says the rent will be as young adults now approach their retirement. There is a proven answer that won’t bankrupt housing seekers or taxpayers. But first, let’s understand the problems.

@fmsmith319 How will Millennials and Gen Z retire in renters economy? 🤔🏡
♬ original sound - Freddie Smith

“My biggest concern with our country turning into a renters’ economy is: how will the millennial and Gen Zers retire comfortably if they don’t own a house and are going to have to rent forever?”

Agent Smith’s and the Federal Reserve’s math indicates rental costs are 4.3 times higher in 2024 than in 1994.

Projecting a similar 4.3-times increase thirty years into the future, rent would be about $8,500 monthly for today’s young adults as they near retirement. That's why Smith said he sounded the alarm.

Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (VT-D) said homelessness is the canary in the coal mine for our economic, moral, and political policies (6.12.2023).

Here are more vexing facts.

• Homelessness in Florida is “rampant” and “growing.”
• States with the Most Homeless (2024): California (171,521) · New York (74,178) · Florida (25,959) Washington (25,211) · Texas (24,432) · Oregon (17,959).
• “New York, Vermont, and Oregon have the highest rates of homelessness across the 50 states.”
• While drugs or alcoholism may be a factor in homelessness, the lack of affordable housing is the biggest factor. Some 53 to 60 percent of the homeless are employed. Indeed, some who become homeless may turn to drugs or alcohol to cope with their plight.

A lack of affordable housing is costing our economy about two trillion dollars annually. So said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (RI-D). Whitehouse said that in support of a Democratic plan he curiously admitted wouldn’t solve the crisis.

In the U.S. House, Representative Ilhan Omar (MN-D) is pitching a trillion-dollar housing plan that also won’t solve the problem.

Omar’s bill would authorize construction of 12 million new public housing and privately owned rental units. Estimates on the number of housing units needed in the U.S. vary. 6 to 10 million units needed is plausible. With more births than deaths plus immigration – legal immigrants plus illegal border jumpers – Rep. Omar may have a point that 12 million units may be needed.

The Ledger thoughtfully published an op-ed about 6 months ago that cited this statement.

• “Right now, in almost no market in this country, can a [conventional] homebuilder build a house that is affordable for a first-time homebuyer,” National Association of Home Builders CEO Jerry Howard said on Fox Business. “We can’t do it. The costs that are on us make it impossible.”

MSN, Yahoo News, and Planetizen are some aggregators and news sources that republished or plugged that Ledger op-ed.

Not long after that, Deseret News invited a longer and focused set of facts behind existing federal law and the “enhanced preemption” enforcement solution to the housing crisis using inherently affordable modern manufactured homes.

Thanks to that and other media coverage, awareness has incrementally increased.

Still, public officials have not yet budged.

Polk County, FL reportedly has the highest percentage of mobile and manufactured homes in the Florida. U.S. Census data indicates that Florida has one of the highest percentages of mobile and manufactured homes in the U.S. Based on Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) generated HMDA data Polk County, FL is the number three county in the U.S. for manufactured home loans. Fresh data reveals some 1,273 loans for an average amount financed of $168,695.99 were originated. Many of those loans would be land/home packages.

Let's pause and note that tens of millions of Americans have little or no experience with modern manufactured home. They may have driven by some old 'trailer park' or 'mobile home park' but have never been in a contemporary manufactured home. This isn't a plug for mortgage giant Freddie Mac, but they have produced multiple third-party research reports on manufactured housing. For those who want to understand the need to have millions of more manufactured homes, those Freddie Mac reports are a useful place to start.

If you are a renter with good credit then the odds are you could qualify for a new manufactured home for about the same, or sometimes, a lower monthly payment. Who said? Freddie Mac research, that said that over 25 million American renters could buy a manufactured home.

For 6 years, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Freddie Mac's regulatory, has been reporting that manufactured homes are appreciating. Lending Tree said that in many states, manufactured homes are appreciating at a faster pace than conventional 'site built' housing.

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) says Florida is the #2 state in the U.S. for new manufactured home shipments.

Those facts obviously haven’t hurt conventional housing values, as numerous studies, the Urban Institute citing FHFA data, and HUD have repeatedly demonstrated that manufactured homes and conventional housing appreciate side-by-side.

Arguably among the takeaways from that array of linked facts and insights is this. Conventional site-built houses, multifamily housing, tiny houses, accessory dwelling units (ADUs), modular homes, prefab homes, 3D printed housing, container houses, and manufactured homes are all needed.

Barring a dubious mass exodus from the U.S. of millions of souls who’ve entered the country in the past 3½ years (or prior to the current administration) illegally, the U.S. will need millions of housing units.

As the quote from former NAHB CEO Howard above reminds us, conventional builders have already said they can’t achieve the price points or volume needed.

So, as noted earlier, all kinds of new construction types are needed to meet the needs People should be allowed to select or choose the kind of home that fits their needs and budgets.

However, without millions of new manufactured homes, the affordable housing crisis can’t be solved. Nothing else will make the “affordable housing” math work.

HUD researchers indicated they reviewed 50 years of political promises made by both major political parties. HUD’s Regina Gray said professionals from nations around the world come to the U.S. to better understand the wonders of American manufactured housing.

The facts and math are clear. To avoid forever renting and homelessness, we need more affordable housing that doesn’t require taxpayer subsidies. The laws needed to make this happen already exist.

In Congressional testimony, MHARR member Edward Hussey said: “Following 12 years of study and analysis including the recommendations of the National Commission, Congress enacted the 2000 law…”

A widely bipartisan Congress passed what became the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 signed into law by then President Bill Clinton (D).

Zoning is a post-production issue. It is odd then, that the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and the Florida Manufactured Housing Association don’t have on their website the nearly magic words “enhanced preemption” over local zoning barriers?

By contrast, MHARR has pages of references to enhanced preemption on their website.

A prominent, and arguably notorious, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) member (MHP Funds) is Frank Rolfe, who has been spotlighted in an apparently negative way by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP). The satirical, salty language laced, and viral video hit produced by HBO’s Last Week Tonight with John Oliver cited that research but other sources too. So, no plug of Rolfe, nor MHI, are implied when saying that Rolfe has alleged that "special interests" - including MHI - are not interested in solving the affordable housing crisis. See that in the report linked below.

Rolfe has ripped the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) multiple times and public officials, including by saying: “So don’t tell me “we can’t solve affordable housing” because the correct statement is “we don’t want to solve affordable housing”. There are too many special interests – both inside and outside the government – to ever let that happen.”

Mainstream media, earnest affordable housing advocates, and public officials who sincerely want to solve the problem, instead of merely posturing as elections approach, need to routinely expose and then fix this nightmare for millions that is costing our nation about $2 trillion a year in lost productivity.

“The National Coalition for the Homeless estimates as many as 40%-60% of people experiencing homelessness nationwide are employed.” So said the Council for Homelessness in “Myths and Facts about Homelessness.

About 5½ years have passed since MHLivingNews published “Why is Seattle Dying?” on 2019/04/07. It said in part:

• “Public officials and housing advocates need to take a fresh look at the connections between affordable manufactured homes and a healthier society.”
• “It could all be boiled down to a stark choice between people living on sidewalks, parks, cars, tents, or cardboard boxes vs. living in a federally regulated manufactured home that are properly sited and installed. Those manufactured homes should be protected and embraced, as Seattle is perhaps only beginning to learn late in the game.”
• “But in that mix is the need to enforce existing laws.”

The balance of that article is arguably as or more relevant now as it was then. Among the illustrations in that report is the one below, per Trulia. They say that it isn’t bragging if something is factually true. When you source information from across the left-right spectrum, weed out the nonsense, and present information accurately it is proven to stand the test of time.

Be it 5.5 years ago, today, or years into the future, when good existing laws aren’t routinely enforced, the evidence demonstrates the following. So-called “forever renters” face homelessness in the U.S. record numbers. Even with more federal spending, homelessness increased per HUD’s own data.

It has been said that people often don't change until they are faced with inescapable evidence and consequences. This writer said 5.5 years ago that unless zoning and other public officials began to respect and enforce federal law, homelessness would spread. That's what has happened. Agent Freddie Smith has done the public, especially younger adults, a favor in saying that it is important for current renters to take concrete steps to becoming an owner. Smith also did public officials a favor by making a report like this possible. Smith may never have imagined this, or maybe he did. But either way, odds are that you or someone you know is struggling with unaffordable housing. The best time to swing into action with solutions instead of stress or complaints is always sooner rather than later.

More insights in the days ahead. But until then, ask yourself this. Why hasn't the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) launched a similar educational effort? SECO leader David Roden asked a MHI a similar question. Reporters and reseachers, that needs to be a question that is routinely asked of every MHI leader. ##