With Hurricane Season Beginning June 1, Hurricane Center Keeping Eye On Disturbance

FLORIDA — The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on the first tropical disturbance of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Meteorologists at the center say a poorly organized system of thunderstorms has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. However, forecasters said the system is unlikely to strengthen this week.

According to the hurricane center, strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to prevent development while the system moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so.

There's only a 10 percent chance of the system becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.

However, the thunderstorms do appear to be stirring up the ocean.

The hurricane center said seas are producing significant wave height off shore. As a result, marine warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico as of 11:22 a.m. Monday.

A modest cold front will move south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, bringing moderate north/northeast winds through Friday morning.

Additionally, the Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico has had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue Monday morning. Ash is moving north/northeast away from the volcano and over portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The volcanic ash may reduce visibility through Monday afternoon so mariners should exercise caution.

AccuWeather's team of long-range meteorologists and tropical experts have been warning since late March that conditions could become favorable for development of a tropical storm ahead of the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

"During the next several weeks, very warm water will be in place off the southeast Atlantic coast of the U.S., in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea," AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said. "These are natural areas where a front can drop in or a storm in the upper part of the atmosphere can take advantage of the warm water and slowly lead to tropical development."

Related:

• Storm Surge Forecast, Better Communication Priority For NHC Head
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Researchers
• 2023 Hurricane, Tropical Storm Names Released For Atlantic Season

With hurricane season set to begin June 1 and run until Nov. 30, the National Hurricane Center has resumed its daily Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic basin. The outlook will be issued at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration will release its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday, May 25 at 11 a.m.

U.S. Department of Commerce Deputy Secretary Don Graves and NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad will discuss the expected number of storms for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, climate factors that will influence hurricane development and NOAA's readiness with new products and upgrades to enhance forecasting and operations.

NOAA and Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell will also provide advice on how the public can prepare for hurricane season.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, will also be available to answer questions.

Criswell is warning residents not to procrastinate.

"Hurricane safety and preparedness is critically important before the season begins on June 1," she said.

Each year, researchers at Colorado State University are the first to release an Atlantic hurricane season outlook. This year's outlook, released April 14, predicts a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, citing the likely development of El Niño as the primary reason.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers said they expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Researchers are also predicting 55 named storm days, 25 hurricane days and five major hurricane days in the Atlantic basin.

The university researchers plan to release forecast updates on June 1, July 6 and Aug. 3.

On March 31, NOAA released its list of tropical storm and hurricane names for the 2023 season.

They include:

• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Don
• Emily
• Franklin
• Gert
• Harold
• Idalia
• Jose
• Katia
• Lee
• Margot
• Nigel
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rina
• Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney

The names of last year's never-to-be forgotten hurricanes Ian and Fiona will be retired, according to the World Meteorological Organization, an international committee which maintains and updates the list of tropical storms and hurricanes.

On March 29, WMO it was retiring Ian and Fiona from the rotating lists of Atlantic tropical cyclone names because of the death and destruction both Ian and Fiona caused.

Fiona was a large and powerful hurricane, which hit communities in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos. It then moved northward over the western Atlantic and struck Canada as a strong post-tropical cyclone in September 2022, bringing significant damage and loss of life along its path.

The storm brought devastating freshwater flooding to Puerto Rico where it made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm produced more than $3 billion in damage across the Caribbean and Canada and was responsible for 29 direct and indirect fatalities. Fiona was the costliest extreme weather event on record in Atlantic Canada.

Ian was large and powerful hurricane that struck western Cuba as a major hurricane and made landfall in southwestern Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Ian caused a devastating storm surge in southwestern Florida and was responsible for more than 150 direct and indirect deaths and over $112 billion in damage in the United States, making it the costliest hurricane in Florida’s history and the third costliest in the United States, according to WMO.

The name Farrah will replace Fiona in the list of names, while Idris will replace Ian.

In total, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or greater, of which eight became hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Two intensified to major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian — with winds of more than 111 mph, according to the end-of-season tally from NOAA.

In this region, the names are repeated every six years, unless a storm is so deadly that its name is retired. In total, 96 names have now been retired from the Atlantic basin list since 1953, when storms began to be named under the current system.

Among the retired names are some historic hurricanes that will forever be a part of Florida's annals: Andrew (1992), Floyd (1999), Charley (2004), Ivan (2004), Frances (2004), Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Irene (2011), Matthew (2016), Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Michael (2018), Florence (2018), Dorian (2019), Laura (2020), Eta and Iota (2020) and Ida (2021).