2 Tropical Disturbances Have Forecasters’ Attention

TAMPA, FL — The official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been pretty uneventful so far, but that could change in the coming days. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday were keeping a close watch on two disturbances that have some potential for development over the next few days.

The first storm system was located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The system encompassed “a large area of showers and thunderstorms” as of Wednesday morning. It is associated with a strong tropical wave that was moving west at nearly 20 mph as of 8 a.m. June 14. As of Wednesday, the storm was given a 10 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours. The chance for development rises to 20 percent over the next five days, according to the hurricane center’s Wednesday morning Tropical Weather Outlook report.

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The second area of concern is “broad area of low pressure” that is expected to form in the northwest Caribbean Sea by the weekend. The system has no chance of developing in the next 48 hours, according to the hurricane center. Chances rise to 20 percent over the next five days “while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”

Should the two storms develop enough to earn names, they would be called Bret and Cindy. The first storm of the 2017 season, Arlene, made an appearance before the season’s official June 1 start. That tropical storm developed in April and quickly fizzled out.

See also: Extremes Made 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Unique, Researcher Says

While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impacts the storms may have on Florida or any part of the U.S. coastline, they serve as a reminder of the need to be prepared. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average number of named storms this year. The government organization expects 11 to 17 tropical storms to develop over the next few months. That number includes the preseason Arlene. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator said. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated as well.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

NOAA’s forecasters say there is a 45 percent chance that this season’s activity levels will be above normal with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season. Forecasters say there’s only a 20 percent chance for the upcoming season to produce a below-normal number of storms.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready. “We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center