2 Tropical Disturbances Threaten Further Development

TAMPA, FL — Two tropical disturbances that hit the National Hurricane Center’s radar earlier in the week are showing stronger potential to develop more over the next few days. One system was located over the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday while the second remained far off in the Atlantic Ocean. Both, however, are on current paths that may bring them into the Gulf of Mexico.

The first disturbance is a tropical wave that was located about 1,400 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands as of 2 p.m. June 17. The system was forecast to move west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days. Forecasters have given that storm a 40 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 60 percent over the next five days.

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The second system was located over the Gulf of Honduras as of 2 p.m. Saturday. The storm is expected to gradually develop as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

“A tropical cyclone is likely to form early next week over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters wrote in the Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook report.

Forecasters say a Hurricane Hunter aircraft is set to investigate the system on Sunday, “if necessary.” The storm has been given a 80-percent chance of developing more over the next five days.

Should the two storms develop enough to earn names, they would be called Bret and Cindy. The first storm of the 2017 season, Arlene, made an appearance before the season’s official June 1 start. That tropical storm developed in April and quickly fizzled out.

While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impacts the storms may have on Florida or any part of the U.S. coastline, they serve as a reminder of the need to be prepared. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average number of named storms this year. The government organization expects 11 to 17 tropical storms to develop over the next few months. That number includes the preseason Arlene. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator said. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated as well.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

NOAA’s forecasters say there is a 45 percent chance that this season’s activity levels will be above normal with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season. Forecasters say there’s only a 20 percent chance for the upcoming season to produce a below-normal number of storms.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready. “We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center