ICYMI: Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted By NOAA

TAMPA, FL — With the start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season about a week away, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are urging residents to brace for a busy few months ahead. The federal agency released its predictions for the upcoming season Thursday, warning that above-normal storm activity is likely.

NOAA forecasters anticipate the 2017 season will produce 11 to 17 tropical storms. That number includes the pre-season Arlene that developed and fizzled out in April. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator said Thursday. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated, as well.

Get the Patch newsletter and alerts in your inbox.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

NOAA is calling for a more active hurricane season than forecasters at Colorado State University predicted last month. CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project team predicted 11 named storms for the upcoming season with two likely to become major storms.

Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA’s forecasters say there is a 45 percent chance that this season’s activity levels will be above-normal with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season. Forecasters say there’s only a 20 percent chance for the upcoming season to produce a below-normal number of storms.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear generally combine to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Since forecasters expect El Nino conditions to be weak or non-existent, more hurricane activity is likely this year.

NOAA on Thursday also announced new tools it plans to use to model its predictions and issue warnings to the public. A new satellite, GOES-16, will used to assist in forecasting. The satellite offers greater image resolution and sharper detail than those in operation and also has a lightning mapper onboard that “will allow forecasters to see lighting strikes that build within tropical cyclones – a possible signal of strengthening,” a media release from NOAA said.

For folks in coastal areas, NOAA’s announcement that storm surge watches and warnings will now be issued could be of special importance. This new tool will enable forecasters to warn those in coastal regions about the potential for storm surge in their areas.

Storm surge “is one of the most dangerous elements of a hurricane, but it’s often overlooked,” explained Mary Erickson, the deputy director of the National Weather Service.

In addition to storm surge watches and warnings, the weather service also plans to issue warnings and watches that relate to tropical disturbances that haven’t reached tropical storm force, but pose threats to the public.

With only days left for the season’s start, Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready.

“We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website.

Watch: 'Above-Normal' Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected

Graphic courtesy of NOAA