As Hurricane Season Starts, Forecasters Eye Area In Caribbean For Tropical Development

FLORIDA — With the Atlantic hurricane season officially starting on Sunday, forecasters are eyeing a low-risk area for potential tropical development in the Caribbean that could pop up late next week, AccuWeather forecasters said.

Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development in the Gulf and the Caribbean from June 6 to 13.

Plus, two large plumes of Saharan dust are making their way west from Africa toward Florida.

At the same time, experts are watching a low-pressure pulse move from east to west across the globe, which could hinder any possible development, AccuWeather said.

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"This pulse will be moving slowly through the zone from the western Caribbean and southern Gulf around the same time when a surge of moisture may develop," said Alex Duffus, AccuWeather tropical meteorologist. "For these reasons and a reduction in disruptive winds in the region, we believe there is a low chance for tropical development."

A NASA forecast model shows one dust cloud reaching Florida by Saturday, and the other, larger plume by Wednesday, AccuWeather said.

“There's not a thing ‘unusual’ about this large blob of Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic this time of the year. No special precautions are needed. It can, however, zap developing tropical systems of moisture and can diminish rain chances,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

In a separate post, Phillips wrote that talk of tropical weather development in the Caribbean is “nonsensical ‘hurricane hype.’”

“If there’s really something to concern ourselves with, I promise I’ll let you know,” he wrote.

If this area does strengthen into the Atlantic season’s first tropical depression or storm, its track is unknown and will depend on how fast it develops and the steering breezes at the time, AccuWeather meteorologists said.

“There is a chance a tropical depression or storm wanders into the Gulf or perhaps drifts onshore and slowly unwinds over Central America, southeastern Mexico, or Cuba before the middle of the month,” AccuWeather said.

Whether this area develops or not, heavy rain is expected across Florida, as well as parts of the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica in early June, according to forecasters.

Hurricane experts said there is “a near-zero risk” of tropical weather for most of the U.S. through June 10, and a low risk of rain and wind in the Florida Keys from June 10-13.

Months after parts of Florida were pummeled by Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, experts are predicting another above-average hurricane season.

Most well-known models are calling for anywhere from 13 to 19 named storms this season.

Six to 10 of these storms will strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five of them are expected to become major hurricanes of a Category 3 or above, Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said during a news conference hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May.

There’s a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.

There are a number of factors influencing this year’s hurricane forecast, including warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and African monsoons serving as “a conducive spot … to launch out the storms,” Graham said.

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