DeSantis, Rubio, Moody Ahead In University Of North Florida Poll

FLORIDA — A poll of likely voters in Florida from the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida shows Republican incumbent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has a 14-point lead against former governor, Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist.

Registered likely voters in the Nov. 8 midterm election were asked about their vote choices in the upcoming election, as well as perceptions surrounding election security and voter fraud.

Even after the only debate between DeSantis and Crist took place on Oct. 24 in which Crist was widely declared the winner, 55 percent indicated they would vote for DeSantis, while 41 percent indicated a vote for Crist. Less than 1 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 4 percent did not know or refused to answer.

“Given DeSantis’s historic fundraising and popularity among Republicans, his lead in this race is not surprising,” said Michael Binder, faculty director and UNF professor of political science. “The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount.”

When asked about the election for U.S. senator for Florida, 54 percent indicated a vote for Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, with 43 percent for Democrat Val Demings, and 3 percent who didn’t know or refused to answer.

“Demings has raised a lot of money and has been on the attack for months, but Rubio is up double digits,” said Binder. “Florida has become a red state. It will likely take an exceptionally weak Republican candidate for Democrats to win statewide – and Rubio is not a weak candidate.”

Respondents were also asked which candidate they support for Florida attorney general. Republican incumbent candidate Ashley Moody came in the lead with 50 percent, with Democrat Aramis Ayala trailing by 14 points with 36 percent of the vote. Fourteen percent of respondents said they don’t know or refused to answer.

When asked about agricultural commissioner, 44 percent said they would vote for Republican Wilton Simpson and 39 percent indicated a vote for Naiomi Esther Blemur, the Democrat. Seventeen percent said they don’t know or refused to answer.

“The attorney general and agricultural commissioner races are a little less exciting for most folks, and these tend to go down party lines,” said Binder. “As is the case with a lot of these races, the outcome will largely come down to who turns out the most voters — Republicans or Democrats —and it looks like Republicans are going to win that fight.”

In addition to vote choice, respondents were asked about their perceptions surrounding the prevalence of voter fraud. When asked how often there is an election with enough fraudulent voting to affect the outcome, 34 percent said less than 1 percent of races, with 54 percent saying it happens more frequently. Twelve percent said that substantial voter fraud occurs in over half of all races.

In a related question, respondents were asked who they think won the 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, based on receiving the most votes cast by eligible voters in enough states to win. Fifty percent of respondents said Joe Biden definitely won the election, and 19 percent said Trump definitely won.

“Most of the research in this area suggests impactful voter fraud is rare—well under 1 percent of elections,” Binder said, “but most people seem to think it’s much more prevalent. This general distrust in elections is pretty clear when you look at perceptions of the 2020 election, with only half of respondents convinced Biden really won.