Disorganized Thunderstorms In Gulf Of Mexico Head Toward Florida

FLORIDA — Grab the umbrellas and rain gear. Central and South Florida, which lie in the subtropics, has entered the rainy season.

Already, the National Hurricane Center is tracking an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which could develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.

The hurricane center said the thunderstorms are associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough that are "marginally favorable" for additional development as they meander toward Florida.

The system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of Florida later this week.

However, there's only a 20 percent chance of the storms becoming organized, hurricane center forecasters said in the 2 p.m. update.

Related:

• 1st Tropical Disturbance Of 2023 On National Hurricane Center's Radar
• Hurricane Season 2023 Predictions: NOAA Issues Forecast
• Storm Surge Forecast, Better Communication Priority For NHC Head
• 2023 Hurricane, Tropical Storm Names Released For Atlantic Season
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Researchers

But it will bring a 50 percent chance of rain on Wednesday with winds of 8 to 10 mph. The chance of rainfall increases to 80 percent on Thursday with 7 to 9 mph winds, according to the National Weather Service.

With the start of hurricane season beginning June 1, this is the weather pattern that those living in subtropical West Central and Southwest Florida should expect over the summer months. When combined with the influence of the surrounding oceans and daily sea breezes, this leads to the thunderstorm season.

According to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area, the rainy season is now underway. It usually begins in mid to late May and runs through Oct. 15 for Southwest Florida and through Oct. 10 for the rest of West Central Florida.

The graph below illustrates how the rainfall coverage quickly increases for all of West Central and Southwest Florida in June and continues into early October.

In general, the rainy season is characterized by warm, humid conditions with frequent showers and thunderstorms. The start date of the rainy season varies from year to year and is largely determined by the onset of almost daily showers and thunderstorms over the Florida peninsula, as well as late night and morning showers and thunderstorms over the waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, according to the NWS Tampa Bay.

This is typically accompanied by an increase in humidity with persistent dew point values above 70 degrees, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.

For West Central and Southwest Florida, typical rainfall during the thunderstorm season ranges from 1.7 to 1.9 inches per storm.

From late May through June, severe storms are most likely. Hail, damaging winds and waterspouts are common, in addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

July through early September is when the rainy season peaks. While the overall threat for severe weather diminishes, heavy rainfall and seasonal river flooding remain a significant hazard, along with frequent lightning.

Mid-September through early October is the “wind-down" phase and tends to have higher rainfall variability due to potential tropical systems and early-fall cold fronts.