Disturbance Eyes Florida As Tropical Storm Gert Heads North

TAMPA, FL — While Floridians are enjoying mostly normal summertime weather conditions, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are keeping a close watch on two systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Gert was well offshore the United States Monday afternoon, while a disturbance under watch off the coast of Africa was showing potential for further development over the next few days. That system is on a current projected path that could make it a concern for the Caribbean and Florida should its course hold.

Tropical Storm Gert, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season’s seventh named storm, was located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda as of the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. Aug. 14 update. The system was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph while moving north at 8 mph. Gert is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the next day or so while continuing on a course that should take her into the open Atlantic.

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Meanwhile, the disturbance under watch was located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of Monday afternoon. That system is expected to encounter conditions that are “generally conducive for development” over the next few days, the center wrote in its 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook report. The storm was moving west at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Monday afternoon. Forecasters have given the storm a 30 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 60 percent over the next five days.

Should the disturbance develop enough to earn a name, it will be called Harvey. What, if any impact, the disturbance may have on Florida or the United States remains too soon to tell.

See also: ‘Extremely Active’ Hurricane Season Possible: NOAA’s Adjusted Forecast

The arrival of the two storms follows last week’s adjusted hurricane season forecast issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The organization upped its predictions for the year as the traditional peak of the season neared. That peak has officially arrived.

Back in May, NOAA forecast a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season. Last week, that number rose to a 60 percent chance.

“The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010,” NOAA warned in issuing its revised forecast. That season gave birth to such named storms as Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Hermine and Hurricane Danielle. All told, there were 19 named storms, according to NOAA records.

NOAA forecasters now say there is a strong chance for 14 to 19 named storms to crop up this season. This is compared with the projection of 11 to 17 issued in May. Of those storms, two to five of them are expected to be major hurricanes, which is an increase from May’s projection of two to four. Major hurricanes are those that have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The estimate of five to nine hurricanes in total issued in May remains unchanged, forecasters say.

See also: Tampa Bay ‘Ripe For Disaster,’ Hurricane Experts Say

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in announcing the updated predictions. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

Warmer-than-predicted water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean also prompted the adjusted forecast.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year. Average seasons produce about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are generally deemed major.

Residents readying for the ongoing season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center