‘Extremes’ Made 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Unique: Researcher

TAMPA, FL — While folks throughout Florida and along the eastern seaboard are getting ready for whatever the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season brings, a University of South Florida associate professor has been pondering the anomalies that made last year a “season of extremes.”

Dr. Jennifer Collins, who teaches at USF’s School of Geosciences, recently published a paper that delves into the occurrences that made the 2016 season so unique, including the fact it was the second-longest season on record.

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“Overall 2016 was notable for a series of extremes, some rarely and a few never before observed in the Atlantic basin, a potential harbinger of seasons to come in the face of ongoing global climate change,” Collins said. In the recently published paper, “The 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Season of Extremes,” Collins and David R. Roache explore the 15 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes that defined the season.

Although hurricane season typically runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, the researchers noted that 2016 started much earlier with the January arrival of Hurricane Alex. The season didn’t end until 318 days later when Otto made landfall over Central America. That storm was record-breaking in its location and intensity.

October’s Hurricane Matthew, which wreaked havoc in the Caribbean, before heading up Florida’s coastline was also notable. “Hurricane Matthew became a Category 5 at the southernmost latitude on record for the North Atlantic Ocean,” the study noted. “It was the first Category 5 in almost a decade and ended the longest stretch without one since 1950. Matthew claimed more than 600 lives, mainly in Haiti, and caused $15 billion in damage.”

See also: Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted By NOAA

Delving into the 2016 season was intriguing to Collins for several reasons.

“It was such an interesting year,” Collins told Patch. In addition to Hurricanes Alex and Matthew, the season also gave rise to some other anomalies. “I also saw that not many storms formed in the main development region where many hurricanes typically form so I wanted to look into the reasons for this.”

Collins’ fascination with the weather began in her native England in 1987. It was on her birthday that year a storm hit the London area at hurricane force.

“A place called Seven Oaks in London, because of the seven oak trees, for a time became known as one oak because the force of the wind blew the trees down,” she said. “You can tell from that what a huge storm this was.”

The storm most certainly rained on her parade that day, but it sparked her lifelong passion for meteorology.

“I was interested in this event which ruined my birthday party, but on the bright side, school was cancelled along with my dreaded German test,” she said.

Looking Ahead

While Collins’ paper focuses on the season that was, she has some ideas about how the current season might shape up. She says she concurs with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s predictions for an average to above-average season.

“The state of El Niño has a lot to do with how the overall season may look,” she said. “It is expected that there will be a weak El Niño, or we might not even see an El Niño at all. With these conditions, we might see average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in an area where one would typically see storms form. Sea surface temperatures are also important to consider.”

‘It Only Takes One’

As for folks in the Tampa Bay area and those across Florida getting ready, she advises to “forget about what these seasonal forecasts say.” Hurricane Andrew, Collins said, stands as a reminder that even in an “inactive” season devastation can occur.

“It only takes one,” she said. “You should prepare for the worse, and hope for the best. Have an evacuation kit ready if you need to leave ASAP. Have another kit ready if you need to hunker down.”

Collins also strongly urges residents to consider their evacuation plans and to document their property with video. Stowing that video someplace safe, “like in the Cloud,” is also important.

“The people in the Tampa Bay region have been lucky, but that luck will one day run out and it could very well be this season.”

Learn More About Preparedness

Collins is the president of the West Central Florida Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Inasmuch, she’s in the know on where folks can go to learn more about preparing for the season ahead. She recommends folks in the area check out this Saturday’s Hillsborough County Hurricane Expo 2017. The society, she said, will have a booth at the expo along with many other exhibitors offering information to help residents prepare.

The expo takes place from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. at WestShore Plaza Mall, 250 WestShore Plaza, on June 3.

To read Collins’ and Roache’s paper, visit Geophysical Research Letters online.

Watch: Weather Forecasts Have Improved Overall

Photo courtesy of Dr. Jennifer Collins