Heavy Rains Expected As Storm System Aims For FL: See Forecast

Parts of Florida are in for drenching rains over the next few days as a weak area of tropical moisture sits off the coast, experts said.

While the system has a low chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm — just a 10 percent chance of development over the next week — it is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This low pressure system could lead to gusty winds and widespread downpours and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday in Florida, the eastern Gulf and the Southeast, increasing the risk of flash flooding across the region, AccuWeather hurricane experts said.

The system is “nothing to stress over,” Matt Devitt with WINK Weather wrote in a Facebook post.

“Despite the bells, whistles and colors for the area near Florida, it's basically going to be a rainmaker,” he added.

Florida’s east coast will see the most rain, Devitt said. Some areas might see 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated rainfalls of 5 inches or more.

In Southwest Florida, most areas will see ¼- to 1 inch on average with some areas seeing 1 to 2 inches.

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, also isn’t concerned about this system.

“[It’s] still nothing to worry about. Could bump up rain chances a little bit over the weekend. Honestly, we need it,” he wrote in a Facebook post.

While the state’s east coast, especially North Florida, will see the most rain, scattered afternoon and early evening storms are possible across the Tampa Bay area through the weekend, WTSP meteorologists said.

Eyes are also on a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa that has a 40 percent chance of strengthening over the next seven days as it interacts with another disturbance in the Atlantic and moves west, the NHC said.

“Disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic main development region could limit tropical development. If the tropical wave is able to avoid stronger wind shear to the north, it may organize as it moves west toward the Leeward Islands. Impacts to the Lesser Antilles could be possible at the end of next week,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.

If the system does strengthen, it could become Jerry, the next named storm of the season.

As it moves through the Atlantic, it’s “still too early to know whether it goes into the Caribbean or not,” Phillips said.

If it does move into the eastern Caribbean, it would be late next week between Oct. 9 and 11, according to Devitt.

Some forecasting models show possible development in the western Caribbean sometime in the middle of the month, Phillips added.

“Nothing is there right now, so it's simply wait and see. No worries, except of course, it will probably be named ‘Karen,’” he said.

Here’s the latest forecast for the Tampa Bay area from the National Weather Service:

• Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
• Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
• Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5 a.m., then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Sunday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
• Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 p.m., then a slight chance of showers between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Monday: A slight chance of thunderstorms, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
• Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 6 mph.