Hurricane Lee: Category 3 Packs 115 MPH Winds; Florida Impact Uncertain

Updated at 11:50 p.m.

TAMPA, FL — After becoming a monstrous Category 5 storm with 165 mph sustained winds, the most powerful hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Hurricane Lee dropped back to a major Category 3 storm by Friday evening.

Forecasters are watching to see if Lee turns north next week after it passes north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. If it takes that path, Lee should avoid making landfall in the U.S.

At 11 p.m. ET, Lee packed sustained winds of 115 mph and was located about 440 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said it was moving west-northwest at 13 mph.

While it has lost strengthe, it is still a major hurricane, the agency said. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to develop in the western Atlantic through next week.

Lee's course to the west-northwest is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. The hurricane is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

"Fluctuations in (the storm's) intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week," the NHC advisory said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

"Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week," the NHC said.

A steadily increasing long-period swell that may bring deteriorating beach and boating conditions to the Atlantic waters and Atlantic coast beaches of South Florida next week. Swells will gradually build through the week, potentially bringing a threat of beach erosion from rough and pounding surf across multiple high tide cycles late in the week.

The bottom line, forecasters said, is that "Lee may bring dangerous marine, surf, and beach conditions to the Atlantic waters and the Atlantic coast of South Florida through much of next week."

"Lee is expected to increase in size and become more symmetric over the weekend and early next week as the hurricane slows down," NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said early Friday. "Recent wave altimeter data showed peak significant wave heights between 45 and 50 feet near the center. Dangerously high seas are expected to continue near the core of the hurricane, and large swells will spread well away from the system through the forecast period."

Category 5 hurricanes have minimum sustained winds of 157 mph or more. According to NOAA's records, before Lee, there had been 39 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1924 to reach Category 5 strength.

Ian was the most recent Category 5 storm, prior to Lee: Maximum winds in Ian hit 160 mph while it was over the Gulf of Mexico on Sept. 28, 2022. It made landfall in southwest Florida as a strong Category 4 with 150 mph winds seven hours later, the Weather Channel said.

There have been eight Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes since 2016: Before Lee and Ian, Dorian and Lorenzo in 2019, Michael in 2018, Maria and Irma in 2017 and Matthew in 2016, the network said.

Related:

• Hurricane Lee Likely To Be 'Extremely Dangerous Major' Storm: NHC
• Experts Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season In Final Forecast
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• Never Been Through A Florida Hurricane? Here's What You Should Know
• Hurricane Lee Swells To Category 4 Storm, Still Intensifying: NHC

"It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic," Cangialosi said. "Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday."

AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bauer said Lee's strengthening is due to a lack of vertical wind shear in the hurricane's path.

"Through Friday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and at the same time, the storm will move over warmer water," Bauer said.

He said Lee's lack of vertical wind shear is the ideal condition for hurricanes to strengthen and become more organized, and forecasters expect the wind shear in Lee's path to lessen in the next few days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 14, which developed Thursday morning, has become Tropical Storm Margot with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and higher gusts as it heads west-northwest at 14 mph from its current position about 460 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

So far, neither storm is impacting land, and no warnings or watches have been issued.

However, the crew of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft said Hurricane Lee is packing a punch with hurricane-force winds extending 45 miles from the hurricane's center and tropical storm-force winds extending 140 miles beyond the center of the hurricane.

Tropical Storm Margot's track is uncertain as it continues circling further out in the Atlantic Ocean.

However, Margot is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane over the weekend as it moves on a west-northwest track, followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week.

Hurricane Season Forecast

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with most storms forming between mid-August and mid-October, according to the NHC

With three months remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, the Atlantic basin has already generated two major hurricanes, Franklin and Idalia, with Lee becoming the season's third and most powerful hurricane.

In August, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center revised its predictions for the season due to the effects of El Niño on the Atlantic basin. The outlook now includes a 70 percent chance of 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes.

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.” A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2: Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.” Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3: Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4: Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5: Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.