Hurricane Matthew Expected to Regain Category 4 Status on Florida Approach

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly in the evening hours Wednesday, but was still packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. The National Hurricane Center anticipates strengthening with Matthew "forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida," according to the 11 p.m. update.

While Matthew is capturing all the attention in the tropics, that system isn’t the only one forecasters are monitoring closely. Tropical Storm Nicole was located south of Bermuda Wednesday evening while a disturbance a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands was delivering winds and rain to that region.

Hurricane Matthew was located about 325 miles southeast of West Palm Beach as of the hurricane center's 11 p.m. Oct. 5 update. The storm was moving northwest at 10 mph, a slight slowing from earlier in the night Wednesday.

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Matthew's turn to the northwest is expected to continue. "On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass near the Andros Islands and Nassau overnight, then very near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Thursday night through Friday night," the hurricane center's 11 p.m. update said. Strengthening of the storm is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.

On its current projected path, Matthew could make landfall somewhere in the Space Coast area of Florida. Hurricane-force winds were extending out from Matthew by 45 miles. Tropical storm-force winds extended out up to 175 miles.

With Matthew’s approach imminent, hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches have gone up in the Bahamas and across much of Florida, especially along the east coast. By the 5 p.m. Wednesday update, tropical storm watches had also been put into place along the Gulf coast, including the Tampa Bay area.

With a large portion of Florida in Matthew’s possible projected path, Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all counties as the dangerous storm draws closer. Scott also announced a partial activation of the Florida National Guard in advance of the storm.

President Barack Obama was briefed about Matthew's progress by the Federal Emergency Management Agency Wednesday. Following that briefing, Obama reportedly said the federal government is prepared to respond where needed. He also stressed the need for the public to heed warnings. "This is a serious storm," several media outlets quoted him as saying.

Projections for Matthew's path after its anticipated run-in with Florida include a trek through South Carolina and possibly North Carolina. The storm may then spin back south toward Florida by Monday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole, the 14th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, was located about 435 miles south of Bermuda on Wednesday at 11 p.m. The system was packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, an increase from earlier in the day, and was moving northwest at 9 mph. Nicole poses no immediate threat to land at present. Tropical storm-force winds do extend out about 80 miles from her center.

The disturbance under watch is a tropical wave that was located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands Wednesday evening. The system is moving west at 15 mph. Forecasters say it only has a 20 percent chance of developing more over the next five days. On its present course, it poses no threat to the United States.

The rise of activity in the tropics comes at the peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the eight-week period that begins in mid-August and runs through mid-October is a “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

Tampa Bay hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. Even so, it’s had some close calls this year. Most recently, Hurricane Hermine left flooding woes in her wake as she passed by on her way to the Panhandle. Experts say the region's lucky streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website, and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphics courtesy of NOAA