12 Inches Or More Of Rain Could Fall In Parts Of FL This Week

FLORIDA — A plume of tropical moisture from the Caribbean moving across Florida this week will bring heavy rains to much of the state, forecasters said, possibly a foot or more of rainfall in some areas.

The system — a result of both high- and low-pressure areas coming together over the state — could drop more than a foot of rain in some regions and could cause flooding across Florida.

"We have this area of low pressure back towards Mexico. We also have this area of high pressure over the Atlantic, the two of which are pretty much going to be stationary through the course of this week, but it also is going to act as a funnel as tropical moisture moves its way off towards the north heading into the Gulf of Mexico," FOX Weather Meteorologist Kiyana Lewis said. "Eventually, with this drop in the jet stream, that's going to support most of that moisture being filtered right over the state of Florida."

Southwest Florida could see 15 to 20 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office. Most of the rain will fall Wednesday through Friday.

Much of the Tampa Bay area will see 4 to 6 inches of rain this week, while southern parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties could see an accumulation of up to 8 inches, NWS said.

The rain comes following a prolonged period of drought conditions in the state.

“Beneficial rains on the way. Over the next 5 or 6 days, waves of rain will move through the state. Little severe weather expected,” Denis Phillips, ABC Action News meteorologist, wrote in a Facebook post. “Heaviest (Up to 10") will likely fall from Tampa Southward, but I'd expect beneficial rains across the entire area throughout the week. The rainy season is upon us.”

While NWS forecasters said organized development of the weather system moving into Florida isn’t expected, AccuWeather’s meteorologists are “closing monitoring the northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico for potential development over the next week,” according to a news release.

“As the week progresses, tropical downpours tracking through the basin have the potential to produce flooding and rough seas for an extended period of time across Florida, and there’s even a chance the downpours can organize enough to become a named tropical system,” AccuWeather said.

Here's the latest Tampa area forecast from the National Weather Service:

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 102. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 88. South southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 77. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 88. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. High near 88. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.