Hurricane Center Director Pledges To Improve Warnings For Less Active 2023 Season

FLORIDA — A new face will lead the team of National Hurricane Center forecasters in Miami during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts in less than a month. One of their areas of focus is warning of storm surge, which proved deadly last year as Hurricane Ian drowned dozens of Floridians.

New NHC Director Mike Brennan said his team has spent the past several months gearing up for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. They have changes planned to better alert residents when storms bear down on Florida.

“I am honored and humbled to work with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center at a time when we are making exciting advancements in hurricane forecasts and developing new decision support tools to improve community resilience to powerful hurricanes and tropical storms,” said Brennan.

He said one of his priorities is to better communicate with the community the dangers posed by these storms, whether they're tropical cyclones or major hurricanes.

The center's mission is to save lives and reduce by analyzing tropical weather events and issuing watches and warnings. "Increasing understanding of these hazards will enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats," Brennan said.

Last month, Brennan replaced Ken Graham, who was appointed director of the National Weather Service in June.

While their job titles might have changed, Brennan and Graham's commutes remain the same. Both the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center are based out of the same building on the campus of Florida International University in Miami.

While the center doesn't release its tropical storm predictions until May 15, all signs point to a "slightly below average" hurricane season, Brennan said.

The hurricane center is making some changes to the way it forecasts tropical storms. NOAA upgraded its Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model — the primary model for predicting storm surge associated with high-impact weather like hurricanes and tropical storms.

The upgrade includes a number of new capabilities that will help forecasters better understand the risk of storm surge, such as:

• The ability to run the model simultaneously for two storms making landfall.
• Improved model calculations of friction over different types of land surfaces, which helps predict the extent of water inundation along the coast.

“We are seeing a sharp increase in catastrophic storm surge impacts in our coastal communities,” said Graham. “Our new capabilities to effectively and accurately model and forecast storm surge is critical to upholding the NWS mission of protection of life and property.”

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide. This rise in water can devastate coastal communities.

The P-Surge model provides a range of possible outcomes, and allows forecasters to communicate worst-case scenarios to the public.

The hurricane center also will extend its long-range forecast from five to seven days, giving residents more time to prepare.

Weather watchers will also see a change in the peak storm surge forecast graphics, which will better delineate areas that will be inundated by storm surge using an easier-to-read format, and will release a potential storm surge flooding map that will not only show storm surge from the ocean, but will include adjoining tidal rivers, sounds and bays.

Hurricane Ian's Storm Surge

While the path of Hurricane Ian remained uncertain just days before the storm made landfall near Fort Myers, the hurricane center was unequivocable about the catastrophic storm surge and flooding that Hurricane Ian would produce. Although the hurricane center warned Florida residents of the dangers posed by Ian, thousands of residents ignored mandatory evacuation orders.

As a result, the Medical Examiners Commission, which confirms all storm-related deaths, attributed 144 deaths the Hurricane Ian.

“Along with our colleagues across the National Weather Service and NOAA, we’re working to improve community safety through clear communication on the various hazards posed by these storms," said Brennan.

Related:

• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Researchers

The hurricane center bases its forecast on a 30-year average that factors in current conditions such as the Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the presence of El Niño or La Niña climate patterns.

With El Niño prevailing, this year's hurricane season is expected to be slightly below average, which is good news for the areas on the Gulf Coast still recovering from Hurricane Ian, which made landfall on Sept. 23, and the areas on the East Coast still suffering the impacts of Hurricane Nicole, which made landfall on Nov. 10.

New NHC Director's Bio

Brennan officially took on his new role April 10, but he's been preparing for the job for 15 years.
Brennan earned a bachelor's degree in meteorology and a master's and doctorate in atmospheric science from North Carolina State University, and began his career at the National Hurricane Center in 2008 as a senior hurricane specialist.

During that decade, Brennan served as branch chief of the center's Hurricane Specialist Unit, one of NOAA’s highest-profile operational forecast units, guiding his team through 20 tropical storms and 18 hurricanes, including eight major hurricanes, that made landfall in the U.S. during that period.

After 10 years in that role, Brennan was appointed science and operations officer for the Weather Prediction Center and then served as acting NHC deputy director for the past year.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said Brennan was the natural choice to fill Graham's shoes.

“The NHC director is one of the most visible and important jobs in the nation, and Mike possesses the right combination of experience, leadership and personal traits to prepare and guide us through major storms,” said Spinrad. “Alongside our trusted and dedicated team at NHC, Mike will continue to leverage vital partnerships to provide the best forecasts and build resilience to the impacts of hurricanes in U.S. communities.”

Brennan will not only be responsible for activating the nation's hurricane forecast and warning system the moment a tropical cyclone forms in the Atlantic, but it will be his duty to keep federal, state and local partners up to date on the latest potential paths and threats posed by tropical storms while simultaneously keeping the media and public informed.

It's a job that requires an expert multitasker, but Graham said he has no doubt about Brennan's ability to juggle his new duties.

“I had the pleasure of working with Mike for four years at NHC, where I observed his steadfast dedication to the mission of saving lives and property,” said Graham. “Mike is an innovator who has built incredible relationships across the agency and with our emergency management and media partners, and I look forward to the great things ahead at NHC under his leadership.”