Tropical Depression 2 In Gulf Of Mexico May Become TS Arlene

Updated at 11 p.m.

FLORIDA — Odds are growing that a tropical storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico from Tropical Depression 2. It could become Tropical Storm Arlene overnight or Friday, then weaken, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. update there were no watches or warnings for Florida's Gulf coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts late Thursday night. Some modest strengthening is possible overnight, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday morning, the NHC said. Weakening is expected to begin later on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday.

No wind impacts to land are expected, however, the NHC said locally heavy rainfall will be a concern through Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations, indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico developed a broad but well-defined circulation Thursday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is also showing signs of organization.

The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center said there is a 70 percent chance of the depression becoming a tropical storm because environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development.

If these trends continue, there's a 70 percent chance of a short-lived Tropical Storm Arlene forming this evening.

The system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night but begin a slow southward motion on Friday.

By this weekend, environmental conditions are unfavorable for further development of the system as it continues moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is now in the air obtaining more data on the storm and should provide an update Thursday evening, said National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan.

This storm carries the No. 2 designation because the National Hurricane Center determined that an unnamed storm in January met the criteria for the year's first tropical depression.

As June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, the NHC said the thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico increased and became better organized overnight.

The system is producing a mass of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean as of Wednesday. Meteorologists say steering breezes could carry this feature on a northwestward path through the end of this week.

"Should the system stay over warm waters of the Gulf versus crawling along the coast of Mexico from Friday through Saturday, it could have enough time to organize, strengthen and reach tropical depression or storm status," AccuWeather meteorologist Matt Benz said.

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Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane outlook for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, saying the Atlantic coast of the U.S. can expect a "near normal" year that could include four major hurricanes that are a category 3 or higher..

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds that are 74 mph or higher.