Tropical Disturbance Brewing South of Florida

TAMPA, FL — The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close, but it’s not over just yet. A new storm developing in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is showing strong signs of developing further over the next few days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the broad area of low pressure has a 60 percent chance of forming more over the next five days. Should the system gain enough steam to become a named storm, it will be called Otto.

As of the hurricane center’s 7 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook report, the system was given a 0 percent chance of developing over the next 48 hours. However, that outlook changes heading into next week.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week,” forecasters wrote. The system is expected to drift northward or northeastward, the hurricane center said. What, if any, impacts it might have on Florida remain unclear.

Late-season hurricanes are rare but not unheard of. Hurricane Ida in 2009 initially formed on Nov. 4 and peaked as a Category 2 storm, according to The Weather Channel. Lenny, which formed in 1999, is considered the strongest late-season storm to form in the Atlantic. That Category 4 monster was especially unusual because it took a west to east path through the Caribbean Sea. The storm crashed into the Lesser Antilles on Nov. 17, 1999 while packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 each year. The season peaks between mid-August and mid-October. Hurricane Matthew, which wreaked havoc on Florida’s east coast in early October, formed during the traditional peak.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been struck directly by a major hurricane in more than 90 years. Even so, it’s had some close calls and nearby counties, such as Polk, haven't been so lucky. Hurricane Donna in 1960 roared across Cuba before striking the Florida Keys. After moving into the Gulf of Mexico, that storm turned north and made landfall in Fort Myers. Donna then took a path up the state's peninsula. Donna traveled east of Tampa, but directly impacted Polk County, leaving widespread damage in her wake. A trio of storms in 2004, Hurricanes Charley, Jeanne and Frances, also impacted the area, with Polk being hardest hit. This year's Hurricane Hermine also left flooding woes in her wake as she passed by on her way to the Panhandle.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website, and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphics courtesy of the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center