Tropical Disturbance South of Florida Expected to Drift Northward

TAMPA, FL — The clock is winding down on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but that doesn’t mean Mother Nature got the memo.

Proving that point, a large area of low pressure is brewing in the southwest Caribbean Sea. According to the National Hurricane Center, that system has been given a 20 percent chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 80 percent over the next five days.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or over the weekend,” forecasters wrote in the hurricane center’s 1 p.m. Nov. 15 Tropical Weather Outlook report.

The system is expected to drift “generally northward,” which could put it on a collision course with Cuba. Just what, if any, impact the system will have on Florida is too soon to tell. Should the storm develop enough to earn a name, it will be called Otto.

The system’s appearance on the scene comes at the end of the traditional hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 each year. The season peaks between mid-August and mid-October. Hurricane Matthew, which wreaked havoc on Florida’s east coast in early October, formed during the traditional peak.

Late-season hurricanes are rare but not unheard of. Hurricane Ida in 2009 initially formed on Nov. 4 and peaked as a Category 2 storm, according to The Weather Channel. Lenny, which formed in 1999, is considered the strongest late-season storm to form in the Atlantic. That Category 4 monster was especially unusual because it took a west to east path through the Caribbean Sea. The storm crashed into the Lesser Antilles on Nov. 17, 1999 while packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website, and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Map courtesy of the National Hurricane Center