Tropical Storm Harvey Moves West As 2nd Storm Eyes Florida

TAMPA, FL — While Hurricane Gert is one for the history books, Tropical Storm Harvey and two areas of disturbed weather continued to keep forecasters at the National Hurricane Center hopping Friday morning. Harvey was the only named storm in play, but forecasters say a system aiming in Florida’s general direction has a decent chance of forming more over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Harvey was located about 55 miles west of Barbados Friday morning. As of 8 a.m. Aug. 18, Harvey was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving west at 18 mph. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A warning means tropical storm conditions are expected. A tropical storm watch had also been issued for Dominica. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible.

On its current projected path, Harvey is not expected to make contact with the continental United States. The storm is expected to skirt South America before making landfall in Central America sometime early next week.

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Harvey may not pose risks for Florida or the east coast, but a second system under watch might. That disturbance is an area of low pressure that was located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands Friday morning. The storm, forecasters say, continues to show signs of development.

“While it would only take a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development,” the center wrote in its Tropical Weather Outlook report Friday. Even so, forecasters have given it a 70 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. The chances for development over the next five days stand at 70 percent.

The system was moving west-northwestward at 20 mph Friday morning. Its current projected path puts Florida’s east coast in its sights.

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The second disturbance under watch is a tropical wave that was located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands Friday morning. The storm is expected to encounter more favorable conditions for development early next week. The system was moving west-northwest around 20 mph Friday morning. Forecasters expect it to take a turn toward the north in the next few days. The system has been given a 10 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 40 percent over the next five days.

Should the systems develop enough to earn names, the next two up are Irma and Jose.

While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impacts the storms may have on Florida or the eastern seaboard, the uptick in activity serves as a reminder that the peak of the season has arrived.

Forecasters call the period between mid-August and mid-October the “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” according to NOAA.

The peak period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for roughly 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year. Average seasons produce about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are generally deemed major.

Residents readying for the ongoing season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center