Forecasters Eye 2 Areas In Atlantic, Including Tropical Storm

An area of low pressure in the Atlantic is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Jerry soon, forecasters said.

The system, which is about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands on Tuesday morning, is associated with showers and thunderstorms that are becoming better organized, the National Hurricane Center said.

At the same time, AccuWeather hurricane experts are forecasting a high risk of a homegrown tropical development off the East Coast on Oct. 10-12.

It’s expected to bring heavy downpours, gusty winds and rough surf to the U.S. Southeast and the mid-Atlantic area, forecasters said.

“A tropical wind and rainstorm could soak parts of the East Coast later this week and into the weekend. Some coastal areas could see several inches of rain, gusty winds, beach erosion, and prolonged coastal flooding, regardless of tropical development,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said. “A very stormy weekend could be on tap for parts of the Southeast, mid-Atlantic and Northeast if this storm hugs the coast or stalls. There will be a window of opportunity where it could strengthen into a named tropical storm.”

The potential tropical depression is expected to move quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, the NHC said.

It has a 90 percent chance of strengthening over the next two days, the agency said.

“Latest models take it just to the Northeast of the Leeward Islands later this week. It will be a very close call, though. No threat to the US mainland,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post.

There’s also an area that forecasters are eyeing in the southwestern Gulf that has a 10 percent chance of developing before moving inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Whether it strengthens or not, the system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Yucatan peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico over the next couple of days, NHC said.

Here's the latest Tampa area forecast from the National Weather Service:

Tuesday: Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. East northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 99. East northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. North northeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. North northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 67.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68.