Lee Could Become Category 4 Hurricane By Weekend: NHC

Updated at 8:25 p.m. ET

FLORIDA — Hurricane Lee is on track to affect Florida's east coast as a possible category 4 hurricane, less than a week after Hurricane Idalia struck Florida's Gulf Coast.

During its 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Lee is now a category 1 storm with 75 mph maximum sustained winds with higher gusts, "and is likely to rapidly intensify into an extremely dangerous major hurricane by early Saturday."

The hurricane was located about 1,130 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 14 mph. A slight reduction in forward speed is predicted over the weekend.

"Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a major hurricane in a day or two," the NHC advisory said.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

"The NHC intensity forecast calls for Lee to reach category 4 intensity in two to three days," NHC senior hurricane specialist and warning coordination meteorologist Daniel Brown said.

Most of the long-range (spaghetti) models have Lee eventually curving north - missing the Caribbean and remaining offshore of the United States, National Public Radio reported. Hurricane Irma, in 2017, was supposed to follow a similar path - but instead struck the Gulf coast of Florida.

The models show Lee moving near Bermuda next week and eventually heading north, paralleling the eastern U.S. coastline, ABC News reported.

NHC Director Michael Brennan said the center no longer uses the so-called spaghetti models because they confuse the public and may include tracks that have little or no chance of being correct.

The Atlantic hurricane season has entered its busiest month. As the 2023 season approaches its Sept. 10 peak, 12 named storms including Lee have formed in the Atlantic. Only eight other seasons in more than 100 years have matched that pace, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, told The New York Times.

Idalia, the season's third hurricane, formed on Aug. 29, 10 days earlier than average, according to the Times report.

As yet, there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect but Brown said that could change as swells generated by Lee reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

"Given the well-organized low-level structure of the cyclone, steady to rapid strengthening appears during the next few days," said Brown. "The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous (8 a.m.) advisory, bringing Lee to hurricane strength very soon, and to a major hurricane within 48 hours.

"While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast," he said.

Related:

• Experts Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season In Final Forecast
• Hurricane Idalia Slams Into FL's Big Bend: 'Unprecedented Event'
• Never Been Through A Florida Hurricane? Here's What You Should Know

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1
Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.” A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2
Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.” Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3
Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4
Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5

Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.