Tropical Storms Franklin, Gert, Tropical Cyclone 9 Dance Around FL

FLORIDA —While all eyes are on Tropical Storm Hilary and possible catastrophic flash flooding it's expected to bring to southern California over the next 18 hours, National Hurricane Center Director Jamie Rhome said tropical storm activity is simultaneously stirring up in the Atlantic Ocean.

"The tropics are really starting to get active," Rhome said during a news conference from the National Hurricane Center in Miami Monday morning.

The good news for Floridians, however, is the tropical storm activity seems to be avoiding the Florida peninsula.

Rhome said the NHC is keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the season, which is now in the Caribbean Sea, moving to the west at 6 mph with wind gusts of 50 mph or more.

"Note the abrupt turn to the north that will bring potential heavy, heavy rainfall, flooding, flash flooding and mudslides where we can get up to 15 inches of rain over Haiti and the Dominican Republic as the center moves over those islands on Tuesday and Wednesday."

There is currently a tropical storm watch in effect along the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Cacaos, and a tropical storm warning along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

However, if the storm's projection stays northerly, Franklin should pass to the east of Florida.

Florida also lucked out with a Tropical Cyclone 9 that formed in the Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. It will also steer clear of Florida but could flood southern Texas with 1 to 3 feet of rainfall, Rhome said.

"We have a newly formed system in the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to become tropical storm strength by the time it reaches the southern coast of Texas tomorrow morning," he said. "This is a very fast-moving system, and it's really going to close the gap between the central Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas within 18 to 24 hours."

Rhome said the storm isn't expected to reach hurricane levels, but could dump up to 15 inches of rain on Brownsville and Corpus Cristi, Texas.

"Tropical storm warnings are now in effect covering Brownsville and Corpus Cristi," he said. "And with rip currents and heavy surf, tomorrow's not going to be a good day to be at the beach in southern Texas."

In the meantime, Tropical Storm Gert, which is trailing Tropical Storm Franklin, is predicted to dissipate some time on Monday.

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Now located about 410 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, Tropical Storm Gert, the seventh named storm of the season, is moving west at about 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Rhome said TS Gert or its remnants are forecast to turn northwestward Monday night or Tuesday morning before fizzling out.

Hurricane Season Predications

Nevertheless, Rhome said now is not the time for Floridians to let down their guard. August through October are traditionally the most active times for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, and the Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

Last year, Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast near Fort Myers and its barrier islands on Sept. 23 as a Category 5 hurricane and the third-costliest weather disaster on record. Then, a little more than six weeks later, on Nov. 10, Hurricane Nicole struck the east coast of Florida near Vero Beach as a Category 1 hurricane.

In an about-face from earlier 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks, National Hurricane Center forecasters announced Aug. 10 that the region can expect an above-average number of hurricanes during the peak hurricane period running through October.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said unexpected changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions that brought record heat to Florida, will likely influence the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA is now predicting 14 to 21 named storms this season, an increase from its May prediction of 12 to 17 storms.

Of the 14 to 21 storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes, according to Rosencrans.