Tropics Heat Up As Hurricane Season’s Peak Arrives

TAMPA, FL — The peak of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season arrived with a bang as forecasters at the National Hurricane Center found themselves keeping tabs on four separate storm systems Tuesday morning. Hurricane Gert, the season’s seventh named storm, was packing the biggest punch, but forecasters say three disturbances off the coast of Africa also bear watching.

Hurricane Gert was located about 450 miles west of Bermuda as of the hurricane center’s 5 a.m. Aug. 15 update. The Category 1 hurricane was packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph while moving north at an estimated 12 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn toward the Northeast, which would send it into the open Atlantic Ocean without any contact with the U.S. mainland.

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The first of the three disturbances under watch is an area of low pressure that was located more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles as of 8 a.m. Aug. 15. That storm is projected to move west at 15 to 20 mph over the next few days, bringing it into the Caribbean Sea by Friday.

“Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days, but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea,” the center noted in its Tropical Weather Outlook report Tuesday morning.

Forecasters have given the system a 20 percent chance of forming more over the next 48 hours. The chances for formation over the next five days rise to 40 percent.

The second area of disturbed weather under watch is a tropical wave that was located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of Tuesday morning. Forecasters say that system should move west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the next few days. Slow development of the system is possible, with a 10 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours. The chance for development rises to 20 percent over the next five days.

New on the scene is a second tropical wave that is expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next day. That storm has been given a 20 percent chance of forming over the next five days. It is expected to move west to west-northwest at 15 mph once it moves into the Atlantic Ocean.

See also: ‘Extremely Active’ Hurricane Season Possible: NOAA’s Adjusted Forecast

While it’s still too early to tell if any of the disturbances will develop enough to become the season’s next named storms, they serve as a reminder that the peak of hurricane season has officially arrived. This year’s peak, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say, could be a busy one. The agency adjusted its seasonal forecast upward last week.

Back in May, NOAA forecast a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season. Last week, that number rose to a 60 percent chance.

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“The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010,” NOAA warned in issuing its revised forecast. That season gave birth to such named storms as Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Hermine and Hurricane Danielle. All told, there were 19 named storms, according to NOAA records.

NOAA forecasters now say there is a strong chance for 14 to 19 named storms to crop up this season. This is compared with the projection of 11 to 17 issued in May. Of those storms, two to five of them are expected to be major hurricanes, which is an increase from May’s projection of two to four. Major hurricanes are those that have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The estimate of five to nine hurricanes in total issued in May remains unchanged, forecasters say.

About That Peak

Forecasters call the period between mid-August and mid-October the “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” according to NOAA.

The peak period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for roughly 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

So, what makes this eight-week stretch so special?

“Tropical waves are coming off of the coast of Africa roughly every three days, and the very early and late parts of the year provide additional types of potential seedlings,” NOAA’s website explains.

Other environmental conditions during the peak tend to be more conducive for storm development, as well. The factors that align during the peak period include wind, temperature and moisture. Wind shear that might rip disturbances apart in May, for example, tend to weaken by late August, NOAA said.

“This minimum in the shear combines with favorable thermodynamics – ocean temperatures in the deep tropics that increase with each day of summer sun, warmer air temperatures, and increasing atmospheric moisture,” NOAA explained. “When the dynamics and thermodynamics are in sync, as they often are from mid-August through early October, disturbances like African tropical waves can easily strengthen.”

The conditions gradually become less ripe for development in mid-October when increased wind shear tends to reappear and water and air temperatures cool.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year. Average seasons produce about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are generally deemed major.

Residents readying for the ongoing season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website.

Graphics courtesy of the National Hurricane Center