La Niña Is Over: Prepare For Unpredictable FL Weather

FLORIDA — After just a few short months of La Niña conditions, forecasters on Thursday said this past winter's weather phenomenon is done.

According to the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the combination of below-average temperatures weakening in the central Pacific Ocean and the westward expansion of very warm water in the far eastern Pacific helped to dissipate the cooler surface of La Niña.

Now, forecasters predict conditions will remain neutral in the Northern Hemisphere, including Florida, through this fall.

“'ENSO-neutral' means that neither El Niño nor La Niña are in effect, and global seasonal conditions are less predictable," forecasters said in a blog post.

In October 2024, forecasters predicted La Niña would develop in the fall but would likely be a weak event. La Niña eventually developed in January, when below-average sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific.

La Niña was expected to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal rain to Florida.

Forecasters said ENSO-neutral is likely through the summer, which means Floridians could be in for some potentially wild weather.

“Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter and spring weather conditions,” Bill Patzert, a climatologist formerly with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a NASA post.

The University of Georgia reported a second La Niña may return in the late fall; however, spring conditions makes forecasting that far ahead challenging.

Without a strong El Niño or La Niña to influence the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season — which starts June 1 — odds are fairly even on how active the 2025 hurricane season will be at its peak, which runs from mid-August to mid-October, CNN said.

Since the Pacific isn’t guiding the atmosphere much at this point, other weather factors can shape Florida's weather, WJXT reported.

In the near term that might mean for Florida:

• Summer weather conditions will be shaped by sea breeze interactions, Gulf and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and local soil moisture. In general, ENSO-neutral summers in Florida bring hot, humid, and stormy weather, WJXT said.
• The Pacific isn’t likely to help, or hurt, Atlantic hurricane formation.

Climate models call for ENSO-neutral is favored to persist through summer and likely into early fall. The NOAA forecast gives it better than a 50% chance through the August–October peak of hurricane season.

Chances for El Niño or La Niña increase later in the year, forecasters said, with La Niña chances about double those of El Niño; however, neutral is still the highest probability through the early winter.

The neutral weather pattern means hurricane season in the East will depend on monthly and weekly variations in weather patterns that cannot be as reliably predicted as far in advance. The Washington Post reported. Early predictions of a busy Atlantic hurricane season carry more uncertainty than typical, forecasters said.

During a neutral summer, an above-normal amount of named tropical storms may pop up in the Atlantic, according to UGA.

"Of course, we don’t know where those storms will go at this point so we will be watching and waiting as we head for the official start of the season on June 1," UGA officials stated.

SEE ALSO:

• New 2025 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 5 Major Storms Expected
• New 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Here's What To Expect In FL
• FL Has Gotten $28B In Disaster Aid Since 2003
• La Niña Winter On The Way: What This Means For FL