December Hurricane, Up To 3 More Named Storms Possible: Forecasters

FLORIDA — The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over, AccuWeather forecasters warn.

There could be one to three more named storms and warm ocean temperatures could extend the threats beyond the official hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, into December, the experts said.

Their predictions come as Floridians continue to recover from back-to-back hits by Hurricane Helene and Milton in recent weeks. One hopeful note is that storms that come together late in the hurricane season tend to track to the north or northeast, which can spare Florida any more chaos.

Forecasters are also currently eyeing a broad area of low pressure that is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said.

• Also Read: Tropical System Could Develop In Caribbean Sea: NHC

The area has a 40 percent chance of gradually strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, according to the NHC.

“We’ve been saying since March that the end of this year’s hurricane season could be quite active,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said. “We’re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November, with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.”

He added, “We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.”

The next named storm this season would be Patty.

Little wind shear in this area and high pressure building to the north could mean that anything that develops in this area could intensify quickly, AccuWeather forecasters said.

“Climatology favors a more north or northeast track for storms that develop in this region in November. If a storm develops, it could move across Cuba or Hispaniola and move out into the open Atlantic, but we do have to watch for the possibility of eventual impacts to Florida. The area of high pressure could potentially block a storm from heading out to sea and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,” DaSilva said. “The second scenario is a western track. If the area of high pressure is stronger initially, it might guide the storm due west into the Yucatan Peninsula. If the area of high pressure starts to weaken, it could allow the storm to turn to the north. There are a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle. If a storm develops, the eventual path hinges on how strong the area of high pressure will be to the north.”

During the remainder of the season, “there is virtually no risk of direct impacts in November to the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline,” forecasters said.

Late-season tropical developments are more likely to affect Florida and the East Coast.

“The entire state of Florida up into the Carolinas could be at risk of experiencing another tropical impact this season. This region is already vulnerable after dealing with multiple landfalls earlier this year,” DaSilva said. “The western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.”

It’s already been a costly and deadly season, so far this year, with more than 300 deaths in the U.S. linked to tropical storms and hurricanes.

Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton have made landfall in the U.S. so far this season, along with an unnamed storm in North Carolina, causing billions of dollars in damages and economic loss.

Hurricane Helene is estimated to have caused $225 to $250 billion in damage, while Hurricane Milton caused about $160 to $180 billion in damage, AccuWeather said.