How A Strong ​​El Niño Winter Could Affect FL Home Heating Costs

MARYLAND — Residents of Florida who heat their homes with electricity can expect to pay slightly more this winter than last, according to a new winter fuels forecast released Wednesday by the government.

Electricity and propane prices are expected to remain stable, but natural gas prices are about 40 percent lower than at this time last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report. People who use heating oil, which is used extensively in the Northeast, are expected to pay more.

In the South region, which includes Florida, electricity customers can expect to pay an average of about $1,001 to heat their homes from November through March, up 2 percent from last winter.

Also, according to the projections for the South, natural gas costs are projected to decrease 15 percent, for an average of $494 during the five-month period. Propane costs are expected to increase 1 percent, for an average of $1,696 over the winter.

The projection is driven by the supply and demand for winter heating fuels and inventories, but also influenced by weather. Various winter weather outlooks say a strong El Niño climate pattern could bring more snow to parts of the country, but it could also keep temperatures mild.

Heating oil costs are projected to be up 8 percent this winter, for an average cost nationwide of $1,851 over the winter.

The El Niño effect is good news for people living in the western U.S., where temperatures are expected to be warmer this winter than last, when temperatures were much colder than usual. They should pay less overall, regardless of the type of fuel they use.

The average demand for heating fuels exceeds supplies, but both gas and propane inventories were above five-year averages going into winters, the Energy Information Administration said, but inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, were “well below” average.