Tropical Storm Gabrielle Likely This Week As Peak Hurricane Season Arrives

The peak of the 2025 hurricane season has arrived, and forecasters said there's a chance Tropical Storm Gabrielle may form in the Atlantic Ocean before the coming weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave that was located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon. The system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and forecasters said there's a 70 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days.

"This system is expected to initially move slowly westward and then gradually accelerate west-northwest at around 15 mph across the eastern and tropical Atlantic into early next week," NHC forecasters said in a 2 p.m. update.

While it's too early to tell what impact the storm may have on Florida, the most likely days of strengthening will be between Thursday and Saturday, Accuweather said in its latest forecast.

"Due to large amounts of dry air currently in the region, any tropical development and strengthening would likely be gradual. But, it's possible that anything that forms could ramp up to a hurricane by the end of the weekend," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

In a post on Facebook, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News in Tampa, said most long-range models show the storm eventually curving away from the United States. The fronts driving the direction of the storm will also likely bring rain to parts of Florida.

The start of meteorological autumn also kicks off the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to forecasters. The season peak is on Sept. 10.

While activity is predicted to be slow at the beginning of September, it will likely ramp up as the month progresses.

"While there will be a relative lull in tropical activity during the first few days of September, atmospheric conditions will become a lot more conducive for development later this week and into next week," DaSilva said.

According to Phillips, long-range models show the possibility of storms forming in the Caribbean Sea or Pacific Ocean later this month.

"Remember, long-range models are notorious for spinning up stuff weeks out, with it rarely coming true," Phillips said. "What it does mean is they are sniffing out an eventual pattern change which will likely occur (in the) second half of September and into October."

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