Hurricane Milton Strengthens To Category 5: ‘Worst-Case’ Scenario

Updated: Tuesday, 5:45 p.m. EST

FLORIDA — Hurricane Milton strengthened to a Category 5 again Tuesday evening as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico toward an imminent landfall in Florida's populous Tampa Bay region, forecasters said in an update.

Though Milton weakened some overnight, the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 p.m. update that data and satellite images indicated the storm's maximum sustained winds had increased to nearly 155 mph with some higher gusts reported.

By 5 p.m., winds had increased to 165 mph, pushing the storm to Category 5 status.

"(A) large area of destructive storm surge is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula," NHC forecasters said on social media. "If you are in a storm surge warning area, please evacuate if told by local officials."

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As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, the storm was located about 480 miles southwest of Tampa and was moving east-northeast at 9 mph.

The storm’s models are starting to come into agreement on landfall, which will likely be somewhere between the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and the southern end of Manatee County, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

“The (National Hurricane Center) track pretty much mirrors this. That being said, most Floridians know ‘wobbles’ are 100% unpredictable. No model (or human) can actually predict where they occur,” Phillips wrote. “However, most Floridians know those wobbles often are East of the center and have a tendency to go the the right. We've seen it SO many times before. (Charley, Irma, Ian, Idalia, and even Helene 2 weeks ago)”

Milton could bring “a worst-case hurricane impact” to the region, which could see “devastating storm surge” up to 23 feet in the hardest-hit areas depending on where it makes landfall, Jon Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, said.

Most of the region is forecast to see 10 to 15 feet of storm surge — about double the storm surge seen during Hurricane Helene’s recent impact to the state. Helene left millions without power, leveled neighborhoods and killed more than 230 people across six states.

“We are very concerned that Hurricane Milton could become one of the most damaging and costliest storms that Florida has ever seen,” according to Porter, who warned residents in the most at-risk areas to evacuate while they still can.

The storm, if it hits just north of the area, could bring “widespread, catastrophic damage not seen in this part of Tampa Bay in modern history,” he added.

The NHC expanded several watches and warnings in its 5 p.m. update Tuesday. A storm surge warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

The hurricane warning along the east coast of Florida was extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line, while a tropical storm warning along the U.S. east coast was extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A hurricane watch was also issued for the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line.

A storm surge warning remains in effect for Florida's west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, as well as the Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

By Tuesday evening, mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders had been implemented in 25 Florida counties.

"This is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials," National Hurricane Center forecasters said Tuesday. "There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday."

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor had a dire warning for those who don’t follow mandatory evacuation orders in an interview with CNN, according to the New York Post.

Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in more than a century.

“If you choose to stay … you are going to die,” she said, adding that it’s a “literally catastrophic” storm,” the mayor said.

“This is an extremely dangerous hurricane,” FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell said Tuesday. “I need people to listen to their local officials to get out of harm’s way… People don’t need to move far. They just need to move inland.”

Milton was forecast to bring “damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves” across parts of the Yucatan peninsula’s northern coast Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

After this, the hurricane was expected to grow in size and is expected to be “extremely dangerous” when it approaches Florida’s west coast on Wednesday, the NHC said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis also declared a state of emergency for 51 Florida counties over the weekend, days before Milton is forecast to slam into the state as a major hurricane.

Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union and Volusia counties fall under the governor’s emergency orders in Florida.

“We ALL know how serious this storm is. Now is NOT the time to freak out. Now IS the time for action. We have work to do. Work to prepare ourselves. Work to help our friends and neighbors. Work to comfort our children. Making important decisions is hard. Making those choices while freaking out is harder,” Phillips wrote.

Earlier Tuesday, Phillips said he was hopeful that as Milton approaches Florida, it will run into wind shear that will weaken it before landfall.

The Tampa Bay area will see the worst conditions from Wednesday around 8 a.m. through Thursday at 2 a.m., forecasters said.

As Milton moves across the state, Orlando should feel the brunt of the storm from about noon on Wednesday through Thursday at 6 a.m. Central Florida could see wind gusts as high as 120 mph, AccuWeather said.