Updated Snow Forecast For Illinois' Winter 2023

ACROSS ILLINOIS — An El Niño climate pattern will mean Illinoisans will have a warmer-than-normal winter, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday. But what does that mean in terms of snow?

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years. While wetter winter weather is expected across much of the country, Illinois is forecast to have around a 33 to 40 percent chance of drier-than-average conditions but low chances for a drought.

This new, drier weather forecast could also come with a warmer winter for Illinois, the NOAA said. The Prairie State is forecast to also have a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures.

While last winter was the snowiest in recent history for some parts of the Midwest, like Minnesota, Chicago only saw 20.2 inches during the 2022-23 winter, according to AccuWeather. This year could be similar, as much of the Chicago area could see 50 to 74 percent of the typical snowfall it usually gets, AccuWeather predicted.

Average snowfall for the Chicago area is 38.4 inches, compared to the 20 to 30 inches AccuWeather predicts this winter.

December is expected to be mild across the Midwest with a couple of brief, chilly periods, although late winter could bring the coldest conditions of the season, AccuWeather predicted.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists expect wetter-than-average conditions to prevail in Alaska, portions of the West, the Southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic from December through February. At the same time, it’ll be drier than average across the country’s northern tier, especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Niño events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release.

A third of the country, including parts of the southern and central U.S., Hawaii and Puerto Rico, is experiencing drought conditions, according to Tuesday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Although Illinois is likely to have less precipitation than normal, the drought monitor doesn't foresee drought conditions here.

Heavy precipitation later this month is likely to ease drought conditions in the central U.S., Brad Pugh, a drought expert with Climate Prediction Center said in the news release. The heavy precipitation associated with a strong El Niño pattern is expected to provide drought relief to the southern U.S. during the next few months, Pugh said.