Illinois' Summer: Here's What The Farmers' Almanac Predicts

ILLINOIS — The Farmers’ Almanac has mixed news for Illinois: you can expect warm later this month and hot temperaturs in June — but first you'll have to slog through more wet and even stormy weather. The almanac, which has purported to forecast weather conditions since 1818, recently released its summer 2019 outlook for the United States.

The almanac calls for normal temperatures, but stormy weather all summer long. The rest of May's forecast also promises more rain, even as much of Illinois recovers from late April/early May storms and flooding:

• 4th-7th: Ongoing risk of showers.
• 8th-11th: Most places are cloudy, even stormy
• 12th-15th: Clear, turning milder over Great Lakes.
• 16th-19th: A very active storm system near Great Lakes breeds widespread and possibly severe thunderstorm activity south to Kentucky.
• 20th-23rd: Turning progressively warmer.
• 24th-27th: Frequent rain showers; then colder air sweeps in from the west. Clearing weather hopefully arrives for the Indy 500.
• 28th-31st: Fair skies.

The almanac — not to be confused with the old Farmer’s Almanac, which was founded in 1792 — predicts the heat and humidity in the Midwest will build in June, and that July will be a stormy, warm month. And while near-to-below normal precipitation is forecast west of the Mississippi, a stormy summer is on tap for the region overall. Some bouts of severe weather may rumble through in late July. Some of the storms are capable of large hail.

And according to the almanac’s 202-year-old weather formula, summer 2019 overall should see near-normal, summer temperatures across much of the nation — but there will be exceptions. The central and southwestern states are on tap for a very hot summer, especially in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

States in the North- and South-central should expect to see “dangerous weather” in late June, the almanac said. This includes thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and even “devastating” tornadoes.

The South will see oppressive humidity in July, the almanac said, coupled with frequent thunderstorms from the Carolinas down to Georgia. The Southeast will bear the brunt of the hurricane season, with the almanac predicting a tropical disturbance in mid- to late- May, even though the season doesn’t begin until June. A tropical storm could then threaten the region in mid-June, mid-September and mid-October.

The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest will see heat and humidity in June followed by storms and warm temperatures in July. Less rain was expected west of the Mississippi River, but summer storms — with potentially dangerous hail — were also forecasted for the region overall, with severe weather possible in late July.

Lastly, the Pacific Northwest was projected to see pleasant and fair temperatures through August, but an atypically dry summer despite early rains.

The Farmers’ Almanac has been published annually for more than 200 years, offering long-term weather predictions for the U.S. and Canada. It also contains information on gardening, cooking, home remedies and more. It distributes about 1.7 million copies a year.

Both the new and old almanacs purport to have accuracy rates of about 80 percent and the sun factors into both predictions. The new uses a formula that takes into consideration things like sunspot activity, the moon’s tidal action and the position of other planets. The old uses sunspot activity as well, in addition to climatology and meteorology.

Notably, the two made dueling weather forecasts last year, with the old calling for a mild winter and the new calling for a “teeth-chattering cold” season. For what it’s worth, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a warmer-than-usual winter across the U.S. last year, since it was an El Nino winter season.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.