Politics & Government
How Will the State Budget Crisis Affect Voter Behavior in November?
"About the only thing in this election cycle that is certain is that what previously had been accepted as common wisdom no longer applies."
The topic seemed so simple at first: How will the Illinois budget crisis affect voter behavior on Nov. 8?
It’s what we’d been discussing on the Illinois Public Radio show “The 21st” on June 13 with host Niala Boodhoo (you can listen to the show here), and I was elated at the invitation to give my opinion. Voters in Illinois have been angry and growing more so for the last year as the state budget impasse gradually began manifesting itself on greater and greater swaths of the electorate.
They were angry two years ago as state government finances crumbled and the state job climate stagnated, so they turned out incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and elected the first Republican governor in 12 years. Logically, we’d see more of the same this year, right?
Find out what's happening in Tinley Parkfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
Not exactly. And that’s where answering a seemingly simple question became a shot in the dark.
By and large, voter anger over the state budget is focused on two people: Gov. Bruce Rauner and House Speaker Michael Madigan. Rauner is not on the ballot this year, so those who blame him can’t vote against him. Madigan is on the ballot but only for those who live in Madigan’s 22nd Illinois House District.
Find out what's happening in Tinley Parkfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
On top of that, only 62 of the 158 races, or 39 percent, in the Illinois General Assembly this year are competitive, meaning there is a Democrat and a Republican running. Even that figure is overstated because many of those races with two candidates won’t be close due to gerrymandering. So even voters so angry that they simply want to vote out every incumbent will, mostly, be out of luck.
Source: Illinois Campaign for Political Reform
If we look at voter turnout for the March 15 primary election, it would be logical to assume that we’re in for a bump in turnout for the general election as well. Primary turnout this year was nearly 47 percent — more than double the turnout for the 2012 primary. With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton atop the ticket in November, this is shaping up to be an election like no other.
But Chris Mooney, director of the University of Illinois’ Institute for Government and Public Affairs and the other guest on “The 21st,” said neither frustration with state government nor a Clinton/Trump matchup are assured of boosting turnout on Nov. 8. It’s just as likely this convergence of events will keep voters away.
“Usually negative campaigning depresses turnout… And if both sides are doing it at the presidential level it may really drive down turnout,” Mooney said. “But who knows? Maybe that’s past history. Maybe everybody’s so angry this year they’re actually going to get out there and vote for the one they dislike the least.”
About the only thing in this election cycle that is certain is that what previously had been accepted as common wisdom no longer applies. Common wisdom said that Donald Trump, bombastic billionaire reality TV host who never had run for office before, would wash out as a candidate long before the the Iowa caucuses. Common wisdom said that socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was not even a Democrat until he decided to seek the party’s presidential nomination, was merely a distraction on the path of the inevitable candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
As of this writing, there are 144 days until Election Day. In this election season, that’s an eternity. Make predictions at your own risk.
Recommended: 5-year-old with an iPad provides teaching moment on Illinois General Assembly spending habits
Like what you see here from Reboot Illinois? Then sign up for our daily email to get more great content right to your email.
