Blue Iowa Survey: Iowa Democrats Have Most Confidence in a Braley Win Over Lange

Of the four congressional races in Iowa, influential Iowa Democrats are most confident that will pull out a win over Republican Ben Lange, in Iowa's first district, according to Patch.com's latest Blue Iowa survey.

Of the 31 people who took part in the survey, 71 percent strongly agree that Braley, of Waterloo, will retain his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Another 23 percent somewhat agree that Braley would defeat .

None think Braley will lose, while one respondent was neutral and one had no opinion on the race.

The 31 Democrats responding to this Blue Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research showing that endorsements by party "actors" at all levels — officeholders, party officials and local activists — are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.

Blue Iowa looks at the mood of influential Democrats as campaigning for the general election approaches. Those who agreed to take part in the survey are noted below, but individual answers are kept confidential.

Patch also runs Red Iowa, our survey of influential state Republicans. Take a look viewed the four races.

The four races in Iowa are getting national attention. Because redistricting eliminated a congressional seat in Iowa, it has created some interesting match ups, and, despite opinions here in our survey, the large number of independent voters in Iowa means none of the races are a sure thing.

Not far behind Braley on the confidence meter among Democrats is Dave Loebsack in the Democratic leaning second district of Iowa. In fact, when you add those who somewhat agree and strongly agree that he will defeat Republican opponent and political newcomer John Archer, Loebsack has a perfect score.  

The survey shows 64.5 percent strongly agree and 35.5 percent somewhat agree that Loebsack will win.

While, you might say the respondents are just rooting for the home team, Democrats appear a little shakier on the campaigns in the central and western parts of Iowa.

"Latham's money advantage will make it tough for Boswell to win, and King's incumbency will make it difficult for Vilsack to win," one respondent said.

Another commented, "Vilsack will give King a fight. Iowans are tired of negative expressions and his bashing of those he disagrees with."

But overall, in all the races, respondents think the Democrats have the advantage.

"Democrats are fortunate to have four strong candidates in the races," one person commented.

At least 23 percent of respondents had their doubts about whether Democrat Leonard Boswell can defeat GOP candidate Tom Latham, and another 13 percent are either neutral or have no opinion. On the other hand, 67 percent strongly or somewhat believe he will win.

This race is an interesting one because it pits two sitting congressmen against each other, thanks to redistricting.

Finally, perhaps Iowa's most watched race on a national scale is a battle of heavy hitters in the fourth district. Democrat Christie Vilsack, the former first lady of Iowa and wife of U.S. agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack, faces Rep. Steve King, R-Kiron, who is loved by followers (loved to be hated by opponents) and seeking his sixth term in office.

The King-Vilsack race is being watched closely nationally, as is the Latham-Boswell matchup, which the National Journal has identified as one of five “blue chip” House races in the country.

Of responding Democrats, 13 percent somewhat or strongly disagree that Vilsack will win, and other 19 percent are neutral on the race. However, most of the respondents do think Vilsack will win, including 36 percent who strongly agree and 32 percent who somewhat agree.

You can see our latest . If you'd like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at todd.richissin@patch.com.

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