Can Romney's 11th Hour Rush in Iowa Make up for Lost Time?

Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney is visiting Cedar Falls and Ames today as part of a last-minute Iowa bus tour that seems to be trying to make up for months of missed face time in the state.

Ever since the Ames straw poll in August, which Romney declined to attend, the former governor of Massachusetts has been conspicuous by his lack of presence in the state. Now, with only a few days until the Jan. 3 caucus, he's finally showing up in the place, Ames, that was the unofficial start of Iowa's campaign season.

But not having campaigned in Iowa may not actually hurt Romney on caucus night, some political experts say.

"He put in a lot of time and effort four years ago," University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said. "He's starting with a lot of stupport."

Romney spent more than $1 million dollars campaigning for the Iowa caucus in 2008, the Associated Press reported, only to be solidly defeated by Mike Huckabee. But Hagle said the face time Romney put in then means he's carrying over a lot of supporters from that campaign.

At a Romney event in North Liberty Wednesday, Debbie Tippie, 54, an insurance salesman from North English, said she voted for Romney in 2008, and would almost certainly have voted for him again even if he hadn't campaigned in Iowa at all.

"I like Mitt Romney," she said. "I think he can get things done."

Newt Gingrich, who was also largely absent from Iowa until recently, doesn't have that pre-existing base of supporters, which could explain why he's now slipping in Iowa polls as Romney holds steady and other candidates who have put in the groundwork make gains, Hagle said.

"Because he (Gingrich) didn’t have a strong organization in the state, he didn’t have the opportunity when he was at the top of his surge to firm up that support," he said. "He did hire back some of his Iowa staff, but not many. By the time they got a little more organized it was too late."

He said though Romney's presence here hasn't been big, he has had staff in the state quietly working to shore up support for their candidate.

As to why candidates like Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum, who have spent the most time in Iowa, haven't been able to translate that time into strong poll numbers, Hagle said they are both fighting for the same group of voters - social conservatives - alongside Rick Perry. In 2008, social conservatives congealed behind Huckabee and delivered him the state, but this time three candidates represent their interests.

Ron Paul is highly organized in Iowa, Hagle said, which translates to high poll numbers for him, and Bachmann, Santorum and Perry are vying for the same voters, which translates to low poll numbers for them. That leaves Gingrich and Romney as potential front runners opposite Paul, neither of whom has spent much time in Iowa this year. But Romney's core of supporters from four years ago, Hagle said, is making all the difference in his poll performances.

"With Romney, his support was firm. If people liked him then (in 2008), they’re probably pretty comfortable with him now," he said.

Romney has also deployed surrogates to campaign for him. The Huffington Post reported Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) headlined a breakfast with Romney supporters in Sioux City yesterday before hitting up Le Mars and Orange City. And on Friday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will stop in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Dubuque on Romney's behalf.

Not making as many of his own campaign stops in Iowa could actually be to Romney's advantage, University of Northern Iowa political science professor Christopher Larimer said.

"He doesn’t want to make a large commitment to the state and then not do well," he said.

He said if Romney doesn't win in Iowa, he can explain it by saying he didn't campaign here, but if he does well, he can point out that even without heavy campaigning, he was still a winning candidate. He's fairly sure of finishing first or second in Iowa no matter how much time he spends here, so he can focus more on other early states like New Hampshire, Larimer said.

"Romney’s probably sitting back and just letting this unfold," he said.

He said Romney's campaign also has the luxury of lots of money to use for advertising and media blitzes. Romney can gain exposure without having to spend a lot of time on the ground, Larimer said.

Romney's Iowa campaign headquarters did not return calls or an email asking for comment Wednesday.

During Romney's few visits to Iowa this campaign year, he has concentrated almost exclusively on the eastern and western edges of the state, trying to shore up support in counties he won in 2008: Scott, Clinton, Johnson and Dubuque. On this trip, he's venturing not only into Black Hawk County, where he lost to Mike Huckabee by 8 points, but into Story and Cerro Gordo counties, where he suffered double-digit losses in 2008.

Like all the candidates, he's using this last week of campaign time to reach out to undecided voters.

At the North Liberty event, many in attendance said although they didn't blame Romney for not visiting more than he had, seeing him in person did seal the deal on their decision to caucus for him.

"I love him," Kathy Hogendom, 58, a retired radio station owner who lives in Solon, said. "I think he's going to be our next president."

She said although she considers herself fairly conservative on social issues, this year the economy and raising deficit trumps everything.

"I think he can beat Obama, and that's all that matters to me," she said.