NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Hawkeyes Likely Out, But Maybe In, How Many Big Ten Tournament Wins?

Iowa fans looking for improvement from last year to this year should take heart with this statement: last year Iowa would have needed to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, and Iowa was a high-seed pick (i.e. almost not picked) in the less prestigious NIT, luckily drawing a home game against the better seeded Dayton Flyers squad.

Also See: Big Ten Tournament Schedule and Bracket 2013: Television and Game Times

This year, regardless of what happens versus Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa should draw a better seed in the NIT Tournament, which means they will be able to host several games at Carver Hawkeye on to a potential trip to New York. They also could make the NCAA Tournament with a strong run in the Big Ten Tourney -- a positive step up for a still young team that loses only one senior in Eric May. 

But that's not what NCAA starved Hawkeye fans came here to read. They want to know how many wins the NCAA Bubble experts (a.k.a. Bracketologists) say they need to earn a NCAA bid instead of watching lackluster conference performers Minnesota and Illinois back in ahead of them.

So what are Iowa's NCAA Tournament fortunes? Well, that depends on who you ask. The consensus seems to be that an NCAA Tournament bid is a long shot with just two Big Ten Tournney wins, but will become more likely with three. Some, however, say that Iowa's pre Big Ten schedule was so weak they will need to win the whole tournament to qualify.

Bubble Watch: Why conference records are completely deceiving(USA Today)

NIT-bound (unless it wins its conference tournament): Iowa

Well, maybe the Hawkeyes are in the conversation if they make the Big Ten final, but that would require no bid thievery and immediate exits in conference tournaments for other borderline teams throughout the land. That's probably not happening.

So why not? Iowa can instantly blame itself for a soft non-conference schedule, but it isn't an especially great road team, either. Toss in some dubious losses (Nebraska, Purdue and especially Virginia Tech), and the Hawkeyes' resume is critically flawed.

That said, Fran McCaffery has done stellar job of resuscitating a program that's operated in the land of irrelevancy for the last six seasons. It's tough to blame him for scheduling wins and understandable why a growing program might not fare well on the road.

Iowa's going to finish this season with a top 100 RPI for the first time since 2006-07. That's real progress. It just isn't going to be enough for an at-large bid barring an almost miraculous series of events

Seth Davis of CBS on Twitter: 

Probably have to win it but if they get to final will be close RT @scott_nemmers: Does Iowa have a shot at making the tournament?

RPI has Iowa down but not out (The Gazette)

National experts and fans agree Iowa sits outside the 68-team NCAA tournament field because of two factors. One, the team lost four road Big Ten games in the final minute of action. Two, the Hawkeyes’ non-Big Ten schedule featured some of the sport’s weakest programs, including five opponents with a Ratings Performance Index (RPI) of 300 or worse.

That’s why this week’s Big Ten Tournament is vital for Iowa (20-11, 9-9 Big Ten). Should the sixth-seeded Hawkeyes beat 11th seed Northwestern on Thursday in the opener, then follow with a victory against third-seeded Michigan State, it still might not be enough. It might take a third win on Saturday or perhaps even the title to earn Iowa’s first NCAA bid since 2006. Either way, Iowa’s status begins with its non-conference scheduling.

Eamonn Brennan of ESPN has Iowa as a "Work to Do" Team

Bubble Watch: The latest update

Iowa [20-11 (9-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 127] Iowa really isn't that far out of this thing: The Hawkeyes were among Joe Lunardi's next four out Monday, ahead of Arizona State and below Alabama, and that looks about right to me. As I've written before in this space, Iowa is drastically underrated by its 72 RPI; adjusted efficiency tells us this is one of the 30 or so best teams in the country. And usually 9-9 in the Big Ten is enough to get you a very serious look. The problem is, the Hawkeyes scheduled so badly in the nonconference -- noncon SOS: 305 -- that they won't receive any benefit of the doubt from the committee. But if they can knock off Michigan State in the second round of the Big Ten tournament? You never know.

So Lose to Northwestern Game 2 = Definitely NIT

Lose to Michigan State Game 2 = Definitely NIT

Beat Michigan State, Lose to Likely Ohio State in Game 3 = Unlikely NCAA

Beat Ohio State and Michigan but Lose in Title Game = Maybe, Just Maybe NCAA

Win it all = NCAA Lock.