Kansas Analysts: Barbara Bollier Needs To Find Path That Eluded Kris Kobach

By Tim Carpenter, The Kansas Reflector

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Aug. 17, 2020

TOPEKA — The hurricane of $16 million spent on the U.S. Senate Republican primary in Kansas made it impossible for GOP candidate Kris Kobach to counter the super-PAC narrative that he was too politically damaged to win in November.

A comparable messaging challenge awaits Barbara Bollier, the Democratic nominee from Johnson County preparing for a campaign fight against U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall, who defeated Kobach by 50,000 votes in the August primary.

Early polling suggests President Donald Trump is a lock to carry Kansas, and Bollier needs to define herself in a way that draws GOP and independent voters who are supportive of the president but not fond enough to wear a MAGA hat. If not, she won’t become the first Democrat since the 1930s to win a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas.

“Can she develop a message to get that kind of Trump voter to also vote for her?” said Patrick Miller, a political science professor at University of Kansas. “What I’ll be interested in seeing going forward is whether Barbara Bollier can really develop a message, if one can even exist, that gets those soft Republicans who are going to vote Trump.”

Bob Beatty, a Washburn University political science faculty member, said during a Kansas Reflector podcast examining the primary election that the unprecedented investment by political action committees dropped to a whisper Kobach’s personal influence in the advertising war.

“Kobach never really ran his own race,” Beatty said. “He did nothing to change the dynamic of the race, in terms of his own ads, and presenting himself in a way that might get some voters to stick with him.”

Marshall in JoCo

Michael Smith, who teaches political science at Emporia State University, said he was surprised by Marshall’s ability to carry voter-rich Johnson County. That’s Bollier’s back yard and a change of scenery from the 1st District where Marshall launched his political career. The congressman netted 33% of the Republican primary vote in Johnson County, well above Kobach’s 25% and plumber-turned-TV-star Bob Hamilton’s 21%.

“He has some name recognition in Wichita, none in Johnson County going in, and then you have the COVID limitations,” Smith said. “So I was really impressed that Marshall was able to win Johnson County. That was an uphill battle for him.”

Miller said an endorsement by Trump may not have altered the GOP primary for the seat being surrendered by retiring U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts. There’s not much evidence from around the country that Trump’s endorsements move voters in the margins, he said.

National controversy stirred up by Trump about the U.S. Postal Service’s ability to handle an influx of coronavirus-inspired advance mail-in voting could backfire on the president.

“It may actually increase voting,” Beatty said.

Watkins dismantled

The victory by state Treasurer Jake LaTurner over incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve Watkins in the 2nd District of eastern Kansas was decisive. LaTurner, who will face Democrat Michelle De La Isla in November, controlled 49% of the vote with Watkins stumbling to 34% and single-issue candidate Dennis Taylor logging 17%.

Watkins’ fate may have been sealed before the Shawnee County district attorney filed three felony voter fraud charges against the first-term congressman, Miller said.

In Watkins’ baggage from the 2018 election were questions about his employment resume, unwillingness to talk of his post-traumatic stress disorder, exaggerated heroism while mountain climbing, skepticism he was a “real” Republican and his worrisome relationships with women.

“I’m really hard-pressed to think of a member of Congress who has done more to inflict unnecessary political damage on themselves than Mr. Watkins,” Miller said. “I don’t think that anyone is particularly surprised that he got himself a serious primary challenger this year.”

Beatty, who served as moderator of the only 2nd District television debate, said there were ramifications to the decision by the district attorney to announce charges against Watkins about 30 minutes before start of that debate. The criminal charges were a point of emphasis in the mid-July debate, he said.

“You know, if Watkins wasn’t in trouble before that day, I think he was done by the end of that night,” Beatty said.

The 1st and 3rd

Smith said 1st District Republican nominee Tracey Mann, who served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Jeff Colyer, would have the upper hand in November against Democrat Kali Barnett. She will have a difficult time in the GOP-thick district stretching from Emporia to the Colorado line. There are western Kansas counties that voted against Hillary Clinton by a nine-to-one margin in 2016.

“The best thing they can do is encourage Democrats to get out and vote,” Smith said. “Her chances of being elected to Congress, barring a huge scandal, are minimal.”

In the 3rd District of Wyandotte and Johnson counties, Republican Amanda Adkins won a competitive primary that had four candidates with at least 19% of the vote.

Adkins, who has a long history of working with former Gov. Sam Brownback, will be up against U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, a Democrat seeking a second term. It’s a district won by Clinton four years ago and lost by Roberts in his last campaign six years ago.

“I think the tea leaves are saying that this is not a toss-up race,” Smith said. “This is a favored Davids race both because Davids is a good candidate who works the district very hard and has raised a lot of money, had no primary opponent … but also just the trending in the district. Johnson County overall is purple and parts of it are solid blue.”

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