Coronavirus: When Will MA Relax Social Distancing Measures?

BOSTON — The institute behind one of the leading models for predicting the impacts of the coronavirus has released new findings that indicate when states may be able to relax some aspects of social distancing implemented to curb the spread of the illness.

The study determines that some states may be ready to relax social distancing measures as early as May 4 provided "robust containment strategies" are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections. But in Massachusetts, which is now in a surge and considered a "hot spot," relaxing social distancing measures isn't likely to occur before June 8, according to the model.

Non-essential businesses remain closed through at least May 4 and the state remains under a stay-at-home advisory. At his Tuesday news briefing, Gov. Charlie Baker signaled it may be later than June 8 before social distancing measures are relaxed. In addition to saying schools would remain closed through the end of the academic year, Baker extended the closure of non-emergency daycare centers through June 29.

But he declined to say whether the shutdown would continue past May 4.

"There are plenty of businesses that are open now that aren’t relying on the daycare programming to operate. There are many that would benefit from it if it were to be able to do so," Baker said. "I think obviously we’re going to have to align a bunch of different pieces and parts as we go forward on this, but I want to remind everyone we’re in the surge, and that’s what we’re focused on right now."

The state-by-state analysis were prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and are based on estimates of when infections are predicted to drop below one per one million people in each state.

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Strategies for safely relaxing some social distancing include widely implemented testing, contact tracing and isolation of confirmed cases, and restricting large gatherings, the study said.

"Actual decisions by states to relax social distancing should be informed by meeting critical metrics closer to these dates, including a very low number of estimated infections in the community – less than 1 estimated infection per 1 million people," analysts wrote in a summary.

Baker stressed he was focused on the surge. While the number of new cases has declined in recent days, hospitalizations are up.

The number of confirmed new coronavirus cases jumped 1,566 to 39,643 Monday, according to the daily update from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. The department also reported 103 new deaths, bringing the total of Massachusetts residents who have died from the virus to 1,809.

"This is like the third or fourth quarter, OK? And we are holding our own here," Baker said. "Don’t let the virus win the game. Play it all the way to the end."

You can see the full analysis here.

More Coronavirus Coverage On Massachusetts Patch:

• Massachusetts Coronavirus Deaths Eclipse Flu, Diabetes Deaths
• MA Health Care System Will Not Be Overwhelmed: Baker
• MA Is Now A Coronavirus 'Hot Spot': Here's What That Means
• MA Self-Employed, Gig Economy Workers Can Now File For Unemployment Benefits

Dave Copeland writes for Patch and can be reached at dave.copeland@patch.com or by calling 617-433-7851. Follow him on Twitter (@CopeWrites) and Facebook (/copewrites).