4th and Forever: Not With a Bang But with a Whimper

It seems Eliot had it right.

In the end, the Patriots’ season fizzled out timidly, without fanfare, all their high hopes dashed amid a welter of missed opportunities. Some people will say be thankful for the opportunity to play in the Championship game, but somehow just knowing you got there never seems to cushion the finality of the loss. As mother used to say: “Fresh cream looks lovely, even when it’s off”. That woman had a way with words. For my part, lacking mother’s singular wit, I would simply add, no matter how you dress up Sunday’s AFC Championship debacle, it’s still a pig’s ear. And so Super Bowl XLVII, aka the Harbaugh Bowl or the Ray Lewis Destiny/Swansong/Retirement Bowl, depending on the theme du jour the networks want to feature, will feature two teams, the 49ers and the Ravens, who last year lost in their respective Championship games by 3 points.

 The 2012/2013 Patriots were the 3^rd highest scoring team in NFL history averaging 35 points per game, and yet in the AFC Championship game they mustered a paltry 13 points, and, quite stunningly, were shut out entirely in the second half, being outscored 21-0 by the Ravens. The 2007/2008 Patriots were the highest scoring team in NFL history averaging 36.8 points per game; they entered the Super Bowl sporting a perfect 18-0 record and scored 14 points in losing to the Giants. Indeed, none of the top 7 highest scoring teams in NFL history, who combined have a staggering regular season record of 95-17, have won the Super Bowl. Are you sensing a trend here? I am not slavishly devoted to the idea that defenses win Championships; there are often a myriad of other factors involved such as dumb luck and gross incompetence. But what is undeniable is the fact that high scoring offenses find it more difficult to sustain their elevated regular season point production against better caliber defenses in the playoffs when the consequences of an off day are so brutally final and fear becomes the bane of efficiency. Sunday’s game was a case in point.

 Many factors conspired to undo the Patriots on Sunday. Let me begin with the obvious. The absence of the irreplaceable Gronkowski ultimately proved critical. One could argue, correctly, that the Patriots have been managing without him these past several weeks, but managing in the regular season and succeeding in the playoffs are 2 very different animals as we all witnessed in last year’s Super Bowl. Gronk’s sheer physical presence and pass catching ability are unmatched, particularly in the red zone, where the Patriots struggled mightily and without much success to gain any traction. In his absence, the pass defense was able to focus solely on Lloyd, Welker and Hernandez who Brady targeted a combined 40 times. The venerable Branch is a token presence these days although inexplicably he was in on 39 plays; suffice it to say the Baltimore defense largely ignored him as a threat. Meanwhile, Woodhead (31 snaps) was favored over Vereen (17 snaps), who had been so effective catching the ball against Houston, as the change of pace running back to spell Ridley. Now Woodhead is a nice player - solid and dependable – but Vereen adds another dimension to the offense with his speed, and it was strange indeed to see him used so sparingly since he was effective when called upon.

The receivers were consistently challenged at the snap of the ball by the physical Ravens’ defense, and had to battle to gain some initial separation. Timing and scheme are everything to the Patriots’ offense. If that timing is disrupted then everything else which flows from the design of the offense becomes more difficult. Certainly, it is not an insurmountable challenge, and indeed the receivers did enjoy some measure of success on Sunday, but the Ravens defense didn’t allow anything easy, and as the game progressed the physical pounding began to wear on Lloyd, Hernandez, and in particular, Welker. The Patriots do not have a genuine deep threat receiver who relies more on speed than scheme to gain separation; a receiver who stretches the defense vertically and pressures the secondary.  We thought Lloyd would be that deep threat, but as it turned out that is not his forte. As with Welker, Lloyd excels at the intermediate routes where his success derives from his sudden quickness and precise route running. And so, absent the mismatches Gronkowski creates on the linebackers and safeties, the Ravens were able to squeeze the field and narrow Brady’s range of options. As the game unfolded it took on the familiar rhythms of other match-ups against physical defenses like the Ravens and the Giants; small failures became magnified and confidence ebbed away slowly but inexorably. Brady grew more tentative, less confident in his reads; the spaces became tighter and the windows for the pass increasingly grew narrower. The Patriot receivers paid a heavy physical price for each reception, and, in turn, they too became less certain, less secure. It isn’t fear; it’s human nature. The body can only suffer so much punishment before the mind begins to doubt the wisdom of it all. Brady’s lack of relative success against such physical defenses is no coincidence. The one time in his career when he enjoyed the luxury of a deep threat receiver –Moss in 2007 – he had great success, until it all fell apart in the Super Bowl when the offensive line laid a collective egg and was overwhelmed by the Giants. The result was that Brady was chased and harassed all game and simply didn’t have the time to allow Moss to break open downfield. Time to open the wallet, Daddy Bob, and splurge a little on speeeeed!

 This was also a game of missed opportunities and what-might-have-beens. In the first quarter, the Ravens’ offense was impotent, saddled with poor field position, pinned down and scrambling vainly to gain a foothold. On 3 separate first quarter drives combined, Flacco was 1 for 6 passing for 17 yards, and in total the Ravens had a paltry 40 yards of offense. They were low hanging fruit, ripe for the picking, but the Patriots failed to take advantage. In the first quarter the Patriots had 4 separate drives, 3 which ended in Baltimore territory. They failed to convert 3^rd and 2 on their own 42 (punt); 3^rd and 2 at the Baltimore 12 (FG); 3^rd and 9 at the Ravens’ 35 (punt); and 3^rd and 2 at the Ravens’ 45 (punt). The opportunities were there for the offense to essentially put the game away, but Brady and company showed an unexpected frailty and frittered away the opportunities. Instead of being a free flowing, Patriot-type game marked by TDs and offensive pyrotechnics, the game slowly morphed into one of stagnant field position, each team’s punter going tit for tat in a thankless war of attrition. By the close of the quarter, the fandom was shifting uneasily, recognizing the same old struggles of past years resurface. It was all so depressingly familiar.

 Given a reprieve, Baltimore, as good teams often do when thrown a lifeline. was not slow to grab the gift with both hands and haul itself out of the deep hole they’d been buried in. Perhaps they sensed there was something to all this talk of destiny after all. Taking the ball at his own 10 yard line, Flacco, having spent an entire quarter taking one faltering step after another, suddenly regained his balance and found his bearings. He drove his team 90 yards for a go ahead TD, completing 5 of 6 passes for 66 yards. However, seemingly taking such competence as an insult to his golden boy reputation, Brady responded, righted the ship of state on the next drive and found Welker with a 1 yard TD pass to regain the lead. When he again drove the Patriots downfield prior to the half, it looked for all the world as if normal service had been restored and the conventional wisdom of a Patriot win would prove accurate. But just as the Patriots seemed poised to score again and take a 10 point halftime lead, just as suddenly they suffered a collective brain freeze and needlessly squandered 4 points. First, Hernandez failed to get out of bounds on a sideline pattern after getting a first down, which meant a timeout had to be used. Then Brady, after rumbling for 3 yard gain, failed to call his one remaining timeout with 19 seconds remaining. Had he done so on 2^nd and 7, he could have set up a pass play to the end-zone, which, even if unsuccessful, would have stopped the clock, and still left time to kick a FG. Instead, he and Belichick thought it wiser to save the timeout and rush a play in the hurry up offense. All of New England watched in disbelief as the clock ticked inexorably away and Brady frantically tried to get the offense properly aligned. Finally, with 4 seconds remaining, it dawned on everyone involved they wouldn’t be able to run another play and get the FG team on the pitch in time if the pass was incomplete, and so they called the timeout. The only remaining option was to kick the FG. It was so shocking to see Brady and Belichick mismanage the situation so wildly, that it felt like a symbolic capitulation. Few people felt good about a 13-7 halftime lead, when they had largely controlled the half. Such fears were well founded.

 Halftime is all about making adjustments. Baltimore made all the right calls; conversely, the Patriots didn’t. In the second half the Ravens took off the training wheels, and opened up the offense for Flacco.  The absence of Talib in the Patriot secondary was critical since the Patriots shifted from man coverage to zone to compensate for his loss, and the reserves simply couldn’t hold up as Flacco attacked them relentlessly in the short middle of the park from a shotgun formation. The linebackers and safeties just couldn’t match up over the middle with the TEs and receivers, and having Marquise Cole cover Boldin is a recipe for disaster. The second half witnessed a complete evisceration of the Patriot secondary. Twenty one points and a 15 point loss at home left little argument who won the halftime adjustment battle. On a blustery, frost defined evening at Gillette Stadium, Flacco completely outperformed Brady – as he had Manning in Denver- and by game’s end the once and future Hall of Famer seemed diminished.

 In three playoff games, Flacco has thrown for 853 yards, 8 TDs and no interceptions. It is a testament to his skill and big game ability, as well as the coaches who entrusted him with the task of winning the game, not merely managing it. He welcomed the challenge and proved worthy, while Brady once again stumbled at the end. It is not all Brady’s doing of course. Dropped passes, tipped passes, fumbles all played their part, but fairly or unfairly the buck stops with him. We are all left wondering whether Brady’s and Belichick’s stars are fading, whether the sand is slowly but inevitably draining away from the hourglass. There is no shame in that; we are all subject to the whims of time. It is a sad realization, however. So there, it’s been said. Reality bites. But hey, we always have next year. Yes, that’s the ticket. So pass the Kool Aid and dream that next year will be different from the past 8 seasons. We’ll get them next time!